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Thunder at Cavaliers

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
OKC by 0.2
Expected score
OKC 112.8 – 112.7 CLE
Expected total
225.5
ThunderThe matchupCavaliers
−100Our fair odds+100
112.8Expected points112.7
+1.21Power rating+0.35
108.2Points / game118.0
104.6Allowed / game117.0
44.0FG%46.4
31.63P%34.8
46.0Rebounds / game46.6
4−1Season record3−2
6−4Last 104−6
Alex Caruso G · Cason Wallace G
Jalen Williams G · Nikola Topic G
Thomas Sorber COut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi47.7%55.7%
Polymarket US47.7%57.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:28 AM CTPolymarket US4:28 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−10050%+10947.7%+11047.7%——
CLECleveland Cavaliers+10050%−12655.7%−13657.7%——
SpreadOKC by 0.2
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−0.2our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.5
Over225.5our total————
Under225.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 0.2 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%
← OKC wins byCLE wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more40%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more27%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamslast game
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderlast game
GJared McCainlast game
GAjay Mitchelllast game
CIsaiah Hartensteinlast game
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenlast game
GDonovan Mitchelllast game
GPeyton Watsonlast game
CJarrett Allenlast game
CEvan Mobleylast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·CLE
Oct 28 at DAL
last game
Oct 29 at ATL
4 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso G · right ankle, back about Nov 4Out
OKCCason Wallace G · left shoulder, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
OKCJalen Williams G · left leg fracture, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
OKCNikola Topic G · back, back about Nov 4Out
OKCThomas Sorber C · knee, back about Nov 4Out
OKCChet Holmgren C · right kneeDay-to-day
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEMeleek Thomas G · footDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
OKC·CLE
+1.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
108.2
points / game
118.0
104.6
points allowed / game
117.0
4−1
season record
3−2
3−0
home record
3−0
1−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
44.0
FG%
46.4
31.6
3P%
34.8
46.0
rebounds / game
46.6
22.0
assists / game
26.2
14.8
turnovers / game
15.6
49.2
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

OKC · CLE · 10 days
Oklahoma City ThunderCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Feb 22at OKCOKC 121 − 113
Jan 19at CLEOKC 136 − 104
Jan 16, 2025at OKCOKC 134 − 114
Jan 8, 2025at CLECLE 129 − 122
Nov 8, 2023at OKCOKC 128 − 120
Oct 27, 2023at CLEOKC 108 − 105
Jan 27, 2023at OKCOKC 112 − 100
Dec 10, 2022at CLECLE 110 − 102
Jan 22, 2022at CLECLE 94 − 87
Jan 15, 2022at OKCCLE 107 − 102

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 28at DAL96 − 120L
Oct 26vs PHX125 − 114W
Oct 25vs LAC108 − 101W
Oct 22vs DEN96 − 84W
Oct 20at SA116 − 104W
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 29at ATL111 − 114L
Oct 28vs WSH121 − 111W
Oct 26vs MIN127 − 125W
Oct 24vs BKN125 − 121W
Oct 22at PHI106 − 114L
May 25vs NY93 − 130L
May 23vs NY108 − 121L
May 21at NY93 − 109L
May 19at NY104 − 115L
May 17at DET125 − 94W