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Thunder at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 8:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final OKC 96 – DAL 120
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC3029221596
DAL33322926120
Team box
OKC·DAL
36-87
field goals
46-97
5-32
3-pointers
16-45
19-23
free throws
12-15
43
rebounds
49
17
assists
30
14
turnovers
11
44
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ajay MitchellOKC282943
Cooper FlaggDAL332658
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC282162
P.J. WashingtonDAL271890
Kyrie IrvingDAL271524
Zaccharie RisacherDAL291361

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +27
OKC +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 27 · OKC 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 67%, DAL 33% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
OKC by 7.6
Expected score
OKC 117.8 – 110.2 DAL
Expected total
228.0
ThunderThe matchupMavericks
−199Our fair odds+199
117.8Expected points110.2
+1.41Power rating−0.53
111.2Points / game112.5
100.8Allowed / game116.0
44.8FG%49.8
35.53P%35.0
46.8Rebounds / game43.0
4−0Season record2−2
7−3Last 104−6
Alex Caruso · Cason Wallace
Chet Holmgren · Jalen Williams
Nikola TopicOut (5 each)Dereck Lively II · Naji Marshall
Santi Aldama · Sergio de Larrea
Tarik Biberovic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair66.5%33.5%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket US65.6%38.6%
ProphetX63.7%38.6%
Novig63.0%37.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:30 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:28 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:28 PM CTNovigpre-game · 8:29 PM CT
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−19967%−19165.6%−19165.6%−17563.7%−17063.0%
DALDallas Mavericks+19933%+15938.6%+15938.6%+15938.6%+16737.5%
SpreadOKC by 7.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−7.6our margin−5.5 −10350.7%−5.5 −10350.7%−5.5 +10349.3%−5.5 +10648.5%
DALDallas Mavericks+7.6our margin+5.5 −11653.7%+5.5 −11653.7%+5.5 −11252.9%+5.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our totalo226.5 −12154.7%o226.5 −12655.7%o226.5 −12054.6%o226.5 −11353.0%
Under228.0our totalu226.5 +10149.7%u226.5 +10548.7%u226.5 +11047.6%u226.5 +10848.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 7.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%
← OKC wins byDAL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more62%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more45%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamsstarted
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GJared McCainstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GKyrie Irvingstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·DAL
Oct 26 vs PHX
last game
Oct 26 at MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 8:45 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right ankle sprainOut
OKCCason Wallace · left shoulder labral tearOut
OKCChet Holmgren · right knee patellar tendinitisOut
OKCJalen Williams · left ankle fractureOut
OKCNikola Topic · low back surgeryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right knee surgeryOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · management right foot surgeryOut
DALNaji Marshall · illnessOut
DALSanti Aldama · right knee surgeryOut
DALSergio de Larrea · right knee sprainOut
DALTarik Biberovic · right heel bursitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
OKC·DAL
+1.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
111.2
points / game
112.5
100.8
points allowed / game
116.0
4−0
season record
2−2
3−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−1
W4
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
44.8
FG%
49.8
35.5
3P%
35.0
46.8
rebounds / game
43.0
23.2
assists / game
27.0
15.0
turnovers / game
18.5
50.5
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

OKC · DAL · 8 days
Oklahoma City ThunderDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Mar 1at DALOKC 100 − 87
Dec 5, 2025at OKCOKC 132 − 111
Oct 27, 2025at DALOKC 101 − 94
Jan 23, 2025at OKCDAL 121 − 115
Jan 17, 2025at DALDAL 106 − 98
Dec 10, 2024at OKCOKC 118 − 104
Nov 17, 2024at OKCDAL 121 − 119
May 18, 2024at DALDAL 117 − 116post
May 15, 2024at OKCDAL 104 − 92post
May 13, 2024at DALOKC 100 − 96post

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Oct 26vs PHX125 − 114W
Oct 25vs LAC108 − 101W
Oct 22vs DEN96 − 84W
Oct 20at SA116 − 104W
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W
May 20vs SA122 − 113W

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 26at MIA113 − 109W
Oct 24vs SA106 − 122L
Oct 23at IND121 − 105W
Oct 21at HOU110 − 128L
Apr 12vs CHI149 − 128W
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W
Apr 3vs ORL127 − 138L