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Mavericks at Heat

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final DAL 113 – MIA 109
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL23303030113
MIA27253225109
Team box
DAL·MIA
43-94
field goals
41-92
14-46
3-pointers
13-41
13-14
free throws
14-25
51
rebounds
42
31
assists
26
17
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA39291411
Cooper FlaggDAL4029611
Davion MitchellMIA332102
P.J. WashingtonDAL412092
Kyrie IrvingDAL331866
Walter Clayton Jr.DAL171544

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +12
DAL +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 12 · DAL 8lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 30%, MIA 70% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
MIA by 7.8
Expected score
MIA 124.7 – 116.9 DAL
Expected total
241.6
MavericksThe matchupHeat
+233Our fair odds−233
116.9Expected points124.7
−0.61Power rating−0.06
112.3Points / game109.0
118.3Allowed / game124.7
51.0FG%43.0
36.73P%30.0
40.3Rebounds / game40.0
1−2Season record0−3
3−7Last 104−6
Caleb Martin · Dereck Lively II
Naji Marshall · Santi Aldama
Tarik BiberovicOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair30.1%69.9%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket US30.4%73.4%
ProphetX30.8%71.6%
Novig29.0%71.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:30 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:29 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:29 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:28 PM CT
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+23330%+22930.4%+22930.4%+22430.8%+24529.0%
MIAMiami Heat−23370%−27673.4%−27673.4%−25271.6%−25171.5%
SpreadMIA by 7.8
DALDallas Mavericks+7.8our margin+7.5 −11252.7%+7.5 −11252.7%+7.5 −10651.5%+7.5 −10250.5%
MIAMiami Heat−7.8our margin−7.5 −10751.8%−7.5 −10751.7%−7.5 −10451.0%−7.5 +10050.0%
Totalwe expect 241.6
Over241.6our totalo239.5 −12154.7%o239.5 −12154.7%o239.5 −11954.4%o239.5 −11152.5%
Under241.6our totalu239.5 +10149.7%u239.5 +10149.7%u239.5 +10548.9%u239.5 +10848.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 7.8 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more61%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more45%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.6 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.568%
Total over 241.549%
Total over 251.531%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GKyrie Irvingstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Miami Heat
GKlay Thompsonstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MIA
Oct 24 vs SA
last game
Oct 24 at CHA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 1:00 PM ET
DALCaleb Martin · right thumb sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot surgeryOut
DALNaji Marshall · illnessOut
DALSanti Aldama · right knee surgeryOut
DALTarik Biberovic · right heel bursitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DAL·MIA
−0.61
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
112.3
points / game
109.0
118.3
points allowed / game
124.7
1−2
season record
0−3
0−1
home record
0−2
1−1
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
4−6
51.0
FG%
43.0
36.7
3P%
30.0
40.3
rebounds / game
40.0
25.7
assists / game
24.3
19.0
turnovers / game
14.7
56.0
points in paint / game
48.0

Rating Trend

DAL · MIA · 6 days
Dallas MavericksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Dec 3, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 108
Nov 24, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 102
Feb 13, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 113
Nov 24, 2024at MIAMIA 123 − 118
Apr 10, 2024at MIADAL 111 − 92
Mar 7, 2024at DALDAL 114 − 108
Apr 1, 2023at MIAMIA 129 − 122
Jan 20, 2023at DALDAL 115 − 90
Feb 15, 2022at MIADAL 107 − 99
Nov 2, 2021at DALMIA 125 − 110

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 24vs SA106 − 122L
Oct 23at IND121 − 105W
Oct 21at HOU110 − 128L
Apr 12vs CHI149 − 128W
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W
Apr 3vs ORL127 − 138L
Mar 31at MIL99 − 123L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 24at CHA110 − 115L
Oct 23vs DET111 − 128L
Oct 21vs MIN106 − 131L
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W