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Bulls at Mavericks

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final CHI 128 – DAL 149
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI34223240128
DAL45353930149
Team box
CHI·DAL
52-106
field goals
52-100
10-38
3-pointers
22-49
14-19
free throws
23-27
42
rebounds
57
30
assists
35
13
turnovers
18
78
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
John PoulakidasDAL362824
Rob DillinghamCHI302555
Tyler SmithDAL372070
AJ JohnsonDAL252011
Collin SextonCHI281931
Moussa CisseDAL4117201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +34
CHI +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 34 · CHI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 46%, DAL 54% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
DAL by 1.6
Expected score
DAL 121.1 – 119.5 CHI
Expected total
240.6
BullsThe matchupMavericks
+118Our fair odds−118
119.5Expected points121.1
−0.49Power rating−0.54
116.2Points / game113.7
121.2Allowed / game119.5
46.8FG%46.6
35.63P%33.8
45.1Rebounds / game44.6
31−50Season record25−56
2−8Last 102−8
Anfernee Simons · Guerschon Yabusele
Isaac Okoro · Jalen Smith
Josh GiddeyOutDereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · DAL chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+11846%————
DALDallas Mavericks−11854%————
SpreadDAL by 1.6
CHIChicago Bulls+1.6our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.6
Over240.6our total————
Under240.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 1.6 expected
Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← CHI wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more45%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more30%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.6 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GCollin Sextonstarted
GTre Jonesstarted
FPatrick Williamsstarted
FLeonard Millerstarted
CLachlan Olbrichstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·DAL
Apr 10 vs ORL
last game
Apr 10 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIGuerschon Yabusele · left shoulder; sprain; left elbow sprainOut
CHIIsaac Okoro · left quadricep; contusionOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainOut
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; strain; injury managementOut
CHIMatas Buzelis · right ankle; sprainOut
CHINick Richards · right elbow; sprainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
CHICollin Sexton · right finger; mallet finger; l elbow contusionProbable
and 2 more
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALBrandon Williams · illness; illnessDoubtful
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainDoubtful
DALDaniel Gafford · restDoubtful
DALMarvin Bagley III · left shoulder; impingementDoubtful
DALNaji Marshall · left hip; contusionDoubtful
DALP.J. Washington · left elbow; sprainDoubtful
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayProbable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayProbable
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
CHI·DAL
−0.49
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
116.2
points / game
113.7
121.2
points allowed / game
119.5
31−50
season record
25−56
18−23
home record
15−25
13−27
away record
10−31
L1
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
2−8
46.8
FG%
46.6
35.6
3P%
33.8
45.1
rebounds / game
44.6
28.5
assists / game
25.1
15.2
turnovers / game
14.5
52.7
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

CHI · DAL · 158 days
Chicago BullsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 5−4
Jan 10at CHICHI 125 − 107
Mar 29, 2025at CHIDAL 120 − 119
Nov 6, 2024at DALDAL 119 − 99
Mar 11, 2024at CHIDAL 127 − 92
Nov 1, 2023at DALDAL 114 − 105
Apr 7, 2023at DALCHI 115 − 112
Dec 10, 2022at CHICHI 144 − 115
Jan 9, 2022at DALDAL 113 − 99
Nov 10, 2021at CHICHI 117 − 107

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 10vs ORL103 − 127L
Apr 9at WSH119 − 108W
Apr 7at WSH129 − 98W
Apr 5vs PHX110 − 120L
Apr 3at NY96 − 136L
Apr 1vs IND126 − 145L
Mar 30at SA114 − 129L
Mar 28at MEM124 − 125L
Mar 27at OKC113 − 131L
Mar 25at PHI137 − 157L

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 10at SA120 − 139L
Apr 8at PHX107 − 112L
Apr 7at LAC103 − 116L
Apr 5vs LAL134 − 128W
Apr 3vs ORL127 − 138L
Mar 31at MIL99 − 123L
Mar 30vs MIN94 − 124L
Mar 27at POR100 − 93W
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L