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Hawks at Wizards

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
ATL by 9.2
Expected score
ATL 124.5 – 115.3 WSH
Expected total
239.8
HawksThe matchupWizards
−280Our fair odds+280
124.5Expected points115.3
+0.31Power rating−1.16
119.2Points / game113.6
114.5Allowed / game115.8
46.7FG%47.8
36.03P%28.0
43.3Rebounds / game40.0
3−3Season record2−3
4−6Last 102−8
Henri Veesaar C · Mouhamed Gueye FOutJamir Watkins G · Justin Champagnie F
Tristan Vukcevic F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair73.7%26.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US95.3%47.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US4:30 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−28074%—−204195.3%——
WSHWashington Wizards+28026%—+11047.7%——
SpreadATL by 9.2
ATLAtlanta Hawks−9.2our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+9.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.8
Over239.8our total————
Under239.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 9.2 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%
← ATL wins byWSH wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more66%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more49%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumlast game
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerlast game
GDyson Danielslast game
FOnyeka Okongwulast game
FJalen Johnsonlast game
Washington Wizards
GTrae Younglast game
FAnthony Davislast game
FAJ Dybantsalast game
FKyshawn Georgelast game
CAlex Sarrlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·WSH
Oct 29 vs CLE
last game
Oct 30 vs CHA
5 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Atlanta Hawks
ATLHenri Veesaar COut
ATLMouhamed Gueye F · left foot fracture, back about Nov 20Out
Washington Wizards
WSHJamir Watkins GOut
WSHJustin Champagnie F · right foot, back about Feb 25, 2027Out
WSHTristan Vukcevic F · left hipOut
WSHTre Johnson G · right achilles sorenessDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ATL·WSH
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−1.16
119.2
points / game
113.6
114.5
points allowed / game
115.8
3−3
season record
2−3
1−2
home record
1−1
2−1
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
46.7
FG%
47.8
36.0
3P%
28.0
43.3
rebounds / game
40.0
32.5
assists / game
25.8
13.8
turnovers / game
14.8
55.0
points in paint / game
57.2

Rating Trend

ATL · WSH · 10 days
Atlanta HawksWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Feb 26at ATLATL 126 − 96
Feb 24at ATLATL 119 − 98
Dec 6, 2025at WSHATL 131 − 116
Nov 25, 2025at WSHWSH 132 − 113
Feb 8, 2025at WSHATL 125 − 111
Nov 15, 2024at ATLATL 129 − 117
Oct 30, 2024at WSHWSH 133 − 120
Oct 28, 2024at ATLWSH 121 − 119
Jan 13, 2024at ATLWSH 127 − 99
Dec 31, 2023at WSHATL 130 − 126

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 29vs CLE114 − 111W
Oct 28vs MIA117 − 129L
Oct 26at HOU110 − 120L
Oct 24vs HOU114 − 121L
Oct 23at CHA128 − 81W
Oct 21at ORL132 − 125W
Apr 30vs NY89 − 140L
Apr 28at NY97 − 126L
Apr 25vs NY98 − 114L
Apr 23vs NY109 − 108W

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 28at CLE111 − 121L
Oct 26at CHA103 − 110L
Oct 24at CHI124 − 120W
Oct 23vs TOR102 − 112L
Oct 21vs MIL128 − 116W
Apr 12at CLE117 − 130L
Apr 10vs MIA117 − 140L
Apr 9vs CHI108 − 119L
Apr 7vs CHI98 − 129L
Apr 5at BKN115 − 121L