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Hawks at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 7:30 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final ATL 110 – HOU 120
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL35311925110
HOU32312829120
Team box
ATL·HOU
42-98
field goals
43-81
11-39
3-pointers
8-27
15-21
free throws
26-32
35
rebounds
52
26
assists
31
13
turnovers
22
56
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU372999
Kevin DurantHOU302293
Jalen JohnsonATL362194
CJ McCollumATL302013
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3916125
Amen ThompsonHOU281552

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +22
ATL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 22 · ATL 6lead changes: 20

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 38%, HOU 62% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
HOU by 4.0
Expected score
HOU 116.2 – 112.2 ATL
Expected total
228.4
HawksThe matchupRockets
+165Our fair odds−165
112.2Expected points116.2
+0.40Power rating+0.63
124.7Points / game121.0
109.0Allowed / game111.3
48.3FG%50.0
35.33P%41.3
44.0Rebounds / game43.0
2−1Season record3−0
4−6Last 106−4
Henri Veesaar · Jalen Wilson
Keshon Gilbert · Mouhamed Gueye
RayJ DennisOutJulian Phillips · Marcus Smart
Quadir Copeland · Steven Adams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair37.7%62.3%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket US38.6%65.6%
ProphetX37.5%64.7%
Novig36.5%64.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:30 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:29 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:27 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:28 PM CT
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+16538%+15938.6%+15938.6%+16737.5%+17436.5%
HOUHouston Rockets−16562%−19966.6%−19165.6%−18464.7%−17864.0%
SpreadHOU by 4.0
ATLAtlanta Hawks+4our margin+4.5 −11252.7%+4.5 −10751.7%+4.5 −10451.0%+4.5 +10050.0%
HOUHouston Rockets−4our margin−4.5 −11252.7%−4.5 −11252.7%−4.5 −10852.0%−4.5 −10250.5%
Totalwe expect 228.4
Over228.4our totalo229.5 −10751.8%o229.5 −11252.7%o229.5 +10149.8%o229.5 +10249.5%
Under228.4our totalu229.5 −11252.7%u229.5 −10751.7%u229.5 −11152.7%u229.5 −10651.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.0 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%
← ATL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more36%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.4 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Houston Rockets
GFred VanVleetstarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·HOU
Oct 24 vs HOU
last game
Oct 24 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 4:15 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLHenri Veesaar · right acl tearOut
ATLJalen Wilson · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLMouhamed Gueye · left foot fractureOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
Houston Rockets
HOUJulian Phillips · g league - two-wayOut
HOUMarcus Smart · left forearm strainOut
HOUQuadir Copeland · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right soleus strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
ATL·HOU
+0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.63
124.7
points / game
121.0
109.0
points allowed / game
111.3
2−1
season record
3−0
0−1
home record
1−0
2−0
away record
2−0
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
6−4
48.3
FG%
50.0
35.3
3P%
41.3
44.0
rebounds / game
43.0
33.3
assists / game
28.0
14.7
turnovers / game
15.7
57.3
points in paint / game
47.3

Rating Trend

ATL · HOU · 6 days
Atlanta HawksHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Oct 24at ATLHOU 121 − 114
Mar 20at HOUHOU 117 − 95
Jan 29at ATLHOU 104 − 86
Mar 25, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 114
Jan 28, 2025at ATLHOU 100 − 96
Feb 10, 2024at ATLATL 122 − 113
Dec 20, 2023at HOUATL 134 − 127
Nov 25, 2022at HOUHOU 128 − 122
Oct 19, 2022at ATLATL 117 − 107
Apr 10, 2022at HOUATL 130 − 114

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 24vs HOU114 − 121L
Oct 23at CHA128 − 81W
Oct 21at ORL132 − 125W
Apr 30vs NY89 − 140L
Apr 28at NY97 − 126L
Apr 25vs NY98 − 114L
Apr 23vs NY109 − 108W
Apr 20at NY107 − 106W
Apr 18at NY102 − 113L
Apr 12at MIA117 − 143L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L
Apr 21at LAL94 − 101L
Apr 18at LAL98 − 107L
Apr 12vs MEM132 − 101W