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Heat at Hawks

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 6:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final MIA 129 – ATL 117
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA34352832129
ATL25312932117
Team box
MIA·ATL
51-96
field goals
46-96
11-29
3-pointers
16-38
16-23
free throws
9-14
52
rebounds
40
36
assists
35
16
turnovers
15
70
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA3124183
Bam AdebayoMIA332493
Kingston FlemingsATL282355
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL322331
Andrew WigginsMIA291822
Pelle LarssonMIA311768

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +18
MIA +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 3 · MIA 18lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, ATL 59% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
ATL by 3.6
Expected score
ATL 123.2 – 119.6 MIA
Expected total
242.8
HeatThe matchupHawks
+147Our fair odds−147
119.6Expected points123.2
−0.15Power rating+0.37
109.0Points / game121.0
121.8Allowed / game111.8
43.5FG%47.0
30.53P%33.5
40.5Rebounds / game41.8
0−4Season record2−2
3−7Last 104−6
Simone FontecchioOutHenri Veesaar · Jalen Wilson
Keshon Gilbert · Mouhamed Gueye
RayJ Dennis

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket US45.7%58.7%
ProphetX44.2%58.1%
Novig43.0%57.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 5:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 5:59 PM CT
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+14741%+11945.7%+11945.7%+12644.2%+13343.0%
ATLAtlanta Hawks−14759%−14258.7%−14258.7%−13958.1%−13557.5%
SpreadATL by 3.6
MIAMiami Heat+3.6our margin+2.5 −10751.8%+2.5 −10751.7%+2.5 −10250.5%+2.5 +10648.5%
ATLAtlanta Hawks−3.6our margin−2.5 −11252.7%−2.5 −11252.7%−2.5 −10852.0%−2.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 242.8
Over242.8our totalo243.5 −10751.8%o243.5 −10751.7%o243.5 −10551.2%o243.5 −10250.5%
Under242.8our totalu243.5 −11252.7%u243.5 −11252.7%u243.5 −10751.7%u243.5 +10050.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 3.6 expected
Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more50%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more35%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.8 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.568%
Total over 242.549%
Total over 252.531%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GKlay Thompsonstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Oct 26 vs DAL
last game
Oct 26 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 6:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIASimone Fontecchio · illnessOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLHenri Veesaar · right acl tearOut
ATLJalen Wilson · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLMouhamed Gueye · left foot fractureOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIA·ATL
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
109.0
points / game
121.0
121.8
points allowed / game
111.8
0−4
season record
2−2
0−3
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
2−1
L4
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
43.5
FG%
47.0
30.5
3P%
33.5
40.5
rebounds / game
41.8
24.8
assists / game
31.5
14.5
turnovers / game
14.2
48.0
points in paint / game
57.0

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 8 days
Miami HeatAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Apr 12at MIAMIA 143 − 117
Feb 20at ATLMIA 128 − 97
Feb 3at MIAATL 127 − 115
Dec 26, 2025at ATLMIA 126 − 111
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 112
Feb 26, 2025at MIAMIA 131 − 109
Feb 24, 2025at ATLATL 98 − 86
Dec 28, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 110
Apr 9, 2024at ATLMIA 117 − 111
Jan 19, 2024at MIAATL 109 − 108

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Oct 26vs DAL109 − 113L
Oct 24at CHA110 − 115L
Oct 23vs DET111 − 128L
Oct 21vs MIN106 − 131L
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 26at HOU110 − 120L
Oct 24vs HOU114 − 121L
Oct 23at CHA128 − 81W
Oct 21at ORL132 − 125W
Apr 30vs NY89 − 140L
Apr 28at NY97 − 126L
Apr 25vs NY98 − 114L
Apr 23vs NY109 − 108W
Apr 20at NY107 − 106W
Apr 18at NY102 − 113L