bayesRatings

Vikings at Chargers

NFL · Thursday, Oct 23 · 7:15 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final MIN 10 – LAC 37
← NFL / Oct 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN037010
LAC71431337
Team box
MIN·LAC
164
total yards
419
130
passing yards
212
34
rushing yards
207
12
first downs
29
3-11
third downs
9-13
1
turnovers
1
20:56
time of possession
39:04
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Carson WentzMIN15/2714411
Justin HerbertLAC18/2522731
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Zavier ScottMIN2160
Kimani VidalLAC231171
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Justin JeffersonMIN7740
Ladd McConkeyLAC6881

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +27
MIN +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 27 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 47%, LAC 53% · Updated Oct 23, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 0.0
Expected score
LAC 21.2 – 21.2 MIN
Expected total
42.5
VikingsThe matchupChargers
+111Our fair odds−111
21.2Expected points21.2
+0.30Power rating+0.05
24.2Points / game21.6
20.8Allowed / game23.3
319Total yards / game373
5.4Yards / play5.8
215Passing yards / game262
3−3Season record4−3
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · LAC chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+11147%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−11153%————
SpreadLAC by 0.0
MINMinnesota VikingsPKour margin————
LACLos Angeles ChargersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 42.5
Over42.5our total————
Under42.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 9%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%
← MIN wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more43%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more27%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more20%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.5 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.569%
Total over 42.548%
Total over 49.529%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 66% completions, 300 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 72% completions, 283 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·LAC
Oct 19, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Oct 19, 2025 vs IND
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIN·LAC
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
24.2
points / game
21.6
20.8
points allowed / game
23.3
3−3
season record
4−3
1−2
home record
2−2
2−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
319
total yards / game
373
5.4
yards / play
5.8
215
passing yards / game
262
104
rushing yards / game
111
18.3
first downs / game
20.9
1.8
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

MIN · LAC · 19 days
Minnesota VikingsLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LAC 1−1
Sep 24, 2023at MINLAC 28 − 24
Nov 14, 2021at LACMIN 27 − 20

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 19, 2025vs IND24 − 38L
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W