bayesRatings

Bills at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final BUF 40 – CAR 9
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BUF31621040
CAR03069
Team box
BUF·CAR
410
total yards
244
165
passing yards
130
245
rushing yards
114
23
first downs
19
7-12
third downs
4-11
0
turnovers
3
33:32
time of possession
26:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Josh AllenBUF12/1916310
Andy DaltonCAR16/2417501
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
James Cook IIIBUF192162
Rico DowdleCAR8540
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Khalil ShakirBUF6881
Tetairoa McMillanCAR7990

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +37
BUF +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 0 · BUF 37lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 63%, CAR 37% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 7.7
Expected score
BUF 29.1 – 21.3 CAR
Expected total
50.4
BillsThe matchupPanthers
−169Our fair odds+169
29.1Expected points21.3
+0.48Power rating−0.45
27.8Points / game20.7
22.8Allowed / game21.7
378Total yards / game327
6.0Yards / play5.0
227Passing yards / game187
4−2Season record4−3
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · CAR chance
Our model fair62.8%37.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Bills−16963%————
CARCarolina Panthers+16937%————
SpreadBUF by 7.7
BUFBuffalo Bills−7.7our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.4
Over50.4our total————
Under50.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 7.7 expected
Buffalo Bills by 40 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 8%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 5%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%
← BUF wins byCAR wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more67%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more50%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more42%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.4 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 67% completions, 214 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted
CARAndy Dalton · last 3 games: 69% completions, 70 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·CAR
Oct 13, 2025 at ATL
last game
Oct 19, 2025 at NYJ
12 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
BUF·CAR
+0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.45
27.8
points / game
20.7
22.8
points allowed / game
21.7
4−2
season record
4−3
3−1
home record
3−0
1−1
away record
1−3
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
378
total yards / game
327
6.0
yards / play
5.0
227
passing yards / game
187
151
rushing yards / game
140
23.2
first downs / game
21.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

BUF · CAR · 20 days
Buffalo BillsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CAR 0−1
Dec 19, 2021at BUFBUF 31 − 14

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 13, 2025at ATL14 − 24L
Oct 5, 2025vs NE20 − 23L
Sep 28, 2025vs NO31 − 19W
Sep 18, 2025vs MIA31 − 21W
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W