bayesRatings

Dolphins at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final MIA 34 – ATL 10
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA71071034
ATL030710
Team box
MIA·ATL
338
total yards
213
197
passing yards
168
141
rushing yards
45
24
first downs
11
6-13
third downs
2-11
0
turnovers
1
37:58
time of possession
22:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA20/2620540
Kirk CousinsATL21/3117300
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA18670
Bijan RobinsonATL9250
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaylen WaddleMIA5991
Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL9590

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +31
MIA +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 0 · MIA 31lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 31%, ATL 69% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 7.2
Expected score
ATL 24.9 – 17.7 MIA
Expected total
42.6
DolphinsThe matchupFalcons
+227Our fair odds−227
17.7Expected points24.9
−0.60Power rating−0.08
20.0Points / game18.3
29.3Allowed / game20.0
279Total yards / game364
5.2Yards / play5.6
187Passing yards / game228
1−6Season record3−3
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair30.6%69.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+22731%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−22769%————
SpreadATL by 7.2
MIAMiami Dolphins+7.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.6
Over42.6our total————
Under42.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Falcons by 7.2 expected
Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 6%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 7%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 46 points: <1%
← MIA wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Falcons wins by 3 or more63%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 7 or more48%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.6 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.569%
Total over 42.548%
Total over 49.529%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 66% completions, 187 yds/game, 4 TD, 6 INTstarted
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 64% completions, 162 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ATL
Oct 19, 2025 at CLE
last game
Oct 19, 2025 at SF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIA·ATL
−0.60
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
20.0
points / game
18.3
29.3
points allowed / game
20.0
1−6
season record
3−3
1−2
home record
2−1
0−4
away record
1−2
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
279
total yards / game
364
5.2
yards / play
5.6
187
passing yards / game
228
92
rushing yards / game
136
16.0
first downs / game
20.7
1.7
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

MIA · ATL · 20 days
Miami DolphinsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ATL 1−0
Oct 24, 2021at MIAATL 30 − 28

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W