bayesRatings

49ers at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final SF 15 – HOU 26
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF078015
HOU3137326
Team box
SF·HOU
223
total yards
475
175
passing yards
318
48
rushing yards
157
12
first downs
23
3-9
third downs
9-16
1
turnovers
1
18:38
time of possession
41:22
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Mac JonesSF19/3219321
C.J. StroudHOU30/3931821
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF8250
Woody MarksHOU11620
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jauan JenningsSF4450
Xavier HutchinsonHOU5691

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +16
SF +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 16 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 42%, HOU 58% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 4.4
Expected score
HOU 21.0 – 16.6 SF
Expected total
37.6
49ersThe matchupTexans
+138Our fair odds−138
16.6Expected points21.0
+0.18Power rating+0.16
20.7Points / game21.2
19.7Allowed / game14.7
367Total yards / game304
5.4Yards / play5.1
271Passing yards / game198
5−2Season record2−4
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · HOU chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+13842%————
HOUHouston Texans−13858%————
SpreadHOU by 4.4
SFSan Francisco 49ers+4.4our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.6
Over37.6our total————
Under37.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 4.4 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 3%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 2%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%
← SF wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more55%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more40%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.6 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.570%
Total over 37.548%
Total over 44.528%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 68% completions, 280 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 65% completions, 235 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·HOU
Oct 19, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Oct 20, 2025 at SEA
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
SF·HOU
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
20.7
points / game
21.2
19.7
points allowed / game
14.7
5−2
season record
2−4
2−1
home record
1−1
3−1
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
367
total yards / game
304
5.4
yards / play
5.1
271
passing yards / game
198
95
rushing yards / game
106
22.1
first downs / game
18.0
1.6
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

SF · HOU · 20 days
San Francisco 49ersHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · HOU 0−1
Jan 2, 2022at SFSF 23 − 7

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L