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Titans at Colts

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 3:25 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final TEN 14 – IND 38
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN070714
IND10714738
Team box
TEN·IND
341
total yards
420
228
passing yards
256
113
rushing yards
164
20
first downs
21
6-15
third downs
3-9
1
turnovers
0
34:21
time of possession
25:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN22/3825911
Daniel JonesIND21/2927230
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tyjae SpearsTEN9591
Jonathan TaylorIND121532
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chimere DikeTEN7930
Michael Pittman Jr.IND8951

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +31
TEN +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 31 · TEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 14%, IND 86% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 19.4
Expected score
IND 34.0 – 14.6 TEN
Expected total
48.6
TitansThe matchupColts
+618Our fair odds−618
14.6Expected points34.0
−1.20Power rating+0.41
13.7Points / game33.1
27.4Allowed / game20.0
236Total yards / game380
4.0Yards / play6.4
160Passing yards / game250
1−6Season record6−1
1−9Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · IND chance
Our model fair13.9%86.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+61814%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−61886%————
SpreadIND by 19.4
TENTennessee Titans+19.4our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−19.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.6
Over48.6our total————
Under48.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 19.4 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 47 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 48 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 49 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 50 points: <1%
← TEN wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more91%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more82%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more76%
Within 3 points either way9%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.6 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 65% completions, 247 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 70% completions, 237 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·IND
Oct 19, 2025 vs NE
last game
Oct 19, 2025 at LAC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TEN·IND
−1.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
13.7
points / game
33.1
27.4
points allowed / game
20.0
1−6
season record
6−1
0−3
home record
4−0
1−3
away record
2−1
L2
streak
W3
1−9
last 10
8−2
236
total yards / game
380
4.0
yards / play
6.4
160
passing yards / game
250
76
rushing yards / game
130
15.3
first downs / game
23.6
1.7
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

TEN · IND · 20 days
Tennessee TitansIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 5−4
Sep 21, 2025at TENIND 41 − 20
Dec 22, 2024at INDIND 38 − 30
Oct 13, 2024at TENIND 20 − 17
Dec 3, 2023at TENIND 31 − 28
Oct 8, 2023at INDIND 23 − 16
Oct 23, 2022at TENTEN 19 − 10
Oct 2, 2022at INDTEN 24 − 17
Oct 31, 2021at INDTEN 34 − 31
Sep 26, 2021at TENTEN 25 − 16

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L

IND · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W