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Avalanche at Blackhawks

NHL · Monday, Nov 2 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
COL by 1.3
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
6.3
AvalancheThe matchupBlackhawks
−242Our fair odds+242
3.8Expected goals2.5
+0.45Power rating−0.58
4.2Goals / game2.1
3.2Allowed / game3.7
30.4Shots / game21.6
46.7Faceoff %42.7
16.1Hits / game16.3
7−6Season record4−9
5−5Last 104−6
Josh Manson D · Zachary L'Heureux LWOutRyan Ellis D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair70.7%29.3%
Kalshi74.4%30.4%
Polymarket US71.5%32.5%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:28 AM CTPolymarket US4:28 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−24271%−29074.4%−25071.5%——
CHIChicago Blackhawks+24229%+22930.4%+20832.5%——
SpreadCOL by 1.3
COLColorado Avalanche−1.3our margin−1.5 −10751.8%−1.5 −20867.6%——
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.3our margin+1.5 −14859.7%+1.5 −21868.5%——
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our totalo4.5 −204295.3%o7.5 +10548.7%——
Under6.3our totalu4.5 −204295.3%u7.5 −204195.3%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.3 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 22%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 15%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%
← COL wins byCHI wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more50%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more37%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .912 save %, 2.42 GAAexpected
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.84 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·CHI
Oct 28 vs NJ
last game
Oct 29 at DET
4 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Colorado Avalanche
COLJosh Manson D · left ankle, back about Dec 27Out
COLLogan O'Connor RW · personalDay-to-day
COLZachary L'Heureux LW · upper body, back about Nov 7IR
Chicago Blackhawks
CHIBowen Byram D · upper bodyDay-to-day
CHIRyan Ellis DIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
COL·CHI
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
4.2
goals / game
2.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.7
7−6
season record
4−9
5−2
home record
4−4
2−4
away record
0−5
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
30.4
shots / game
21.6
46.7
faceoff %
42.7
16.1
hits / game
16.3
14.4
blocked shots / game
11.3
4.3
takeaways / game
4.2
17.1
giveaways / game
18.0

Rating Trend

COL · CHI · 31 days
Colorado AvalancheChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Mar 20at CHICOL 4 − 1
Feb 28at COLCOL 3 − 1
Nov 23, 2025at CHICOL 1 − 0
Apr 2, 2025at CHICOL 3 − 2 SO
Mar 10, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 0
Jan 8, 2025at CHICHI 3 − 1
Oct 28, 2024at COLCHI 5 − 2
Mar 4, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 0
Feb 29, 2024at CHICOL 5 − 0
Dec 19, 2023at CHICHI 3 − 2

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28vs NJ5 − 2W
Oct 25at NSH2 − 6L
Oct 23vs TB6 − 3W
Oct 20at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 19at PHI2 − 3L
Oct 16vs PIT5 − 2W
Oct 14vs DAL2 − 3L
Oct 13at DAL3 − 2W
Oct 10vs TOR3 − 6L
Oct 8at CGY7 − 3W

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 29at DET1 − 4L
Oct 27vs LA2 − 1W
Oct 25vs FLA2 − 3L
Oct 23vs MTL1 − 4L
Oct 17vs DAL0 − 4L
Oct 15vs WPG4 − 3W
Oct 13vs PIT5 − 3W
Oct 10vs CAR2 − 5L
Oct 8at NYI1 − 4L
Oct 6vs STL4 − 2W