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Nuggets at Suns

NBA · Friday, Oct 30 · 9:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final DEN 127 – PHX 120
← NBA / Oct 30

Box score and game flow are added the next morning.

Final · our forecast was DEN 60%, PHX 40% · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DEN by 4.1
Expected score
DEN 117.7 – 113.6 PHX
Expected total
231.3
NuggetsThe matchupSuns
−152Our fair odds+152
117.7Expected points113.6
+0.42Power rating+0.01
110.8Points / game109.3
114.0Allowed / game123.7
45.5FG%45.7
33.03P%31.0
44.5Rebounds / game39.7
2−2Season record1−2
4−6Last 103−7
Alpha Diallo · Julian Strawther
Spencer JonesOutDrew Timme · Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · PHX chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshi63.6%39.6%
Polymarket US64.6%39.6%
ProphetX62.6%40.0%
Novig62.0%38.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:59 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 8:58 PM CT
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−15260%−17563.6%−18364.6%−16762.6%−16362.0%
PHXPhoenix Suns+15240%+15239.6%+15239.6%+15040.0%+16038.5%
SpreadDEN by 4.1
DENDenver Nuggets−4.1our margin−4.5 −10751.8%−4.5 −10350.7%−4.5 +10249.6%−4.5 +10648.5%
PHXPhoenix Suns+4.1our margin+4.5 −11252.7%+4.5 −11653.7%+4.5 −11252.9%+4.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 231.3
Over231.3our totalo231.5 −11252.7%o231.5 −11252.7%o231.5 −10250.5%o231.5 +10249.5%
Under231.3our totalu231.5 −10751.8%u231.5 −10751.7%u231.5 −10751.7%u231.5 −10451.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byPHX wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more36%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.3 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CKhaman Maluachstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·PHX
Oct 28 at NO
last game
Oct 26 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 30, 9:30 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAlpha Diallo · right wrist sprain/personal reasonsOut
DENJulian Strawther · left knee sprainOut
DENSpencer Jones · bilateral hamstring injury managementOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXDrew Timme · g league - two-wayOut
PHXMark Williams · left shoulder surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DEN·PHX
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
110.8
points / game
109.3
114.0
points allowed / game
123.7
2−2
season record
1−2
1−1
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
45.5
FG%
45.7
33.0
3P%
31.0
44.5
rebounds / game
39.7
26.0
assists / game
25.3
16.0
turnovers / game
15.3
45.5
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

DEN · PHX · 10 days
Denver NuggetsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 3−7
Mar 24at PHXDEN 125 − 123
Nov 29, 2025at PHXDEN 130 − 112
Oct 25, 2025at DENDEN 133 − 111
Mar 7, 2025at DENDEN 149 − 141
Feb 8, 2025at PHXDEN 122 − 105
Dec 25, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 100
Dec 23, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 90
Mar 27, 2024at DENPHX 104 − 97
Mar 5, 2024at DENPHX 117 − 107
Dec 1, 2023at PHXDEN 119 − 111

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at NO104 − 91W
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 26at OKC114 − 125L
Oct 24vs GS131 − 122W
Oct 21at POR83 − 124L
Apr 27vs OKC122 − 131L
Apr 25vs OKC109 − 121L
Apr 22at OKC107 − 120L
Apr 19at OKC84 − 119L
Apr 12at OKC135 − 103W
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L
Apr 8vs DAL112 − 107W