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Heat at Lakers

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
LAL by 1.0
Expected score
LAL 119.4 – 118.5 MIA
Expected total
237.9
HeatThe matchupLakers
+116Our fair odds−116
118.5Expected points119.4
−0.04Power rating+0.49
113.0Points / game123.2
120.8Allowed / game113.6
45.4FG%52.8
32.03P%39.0
42.8Rebounds / game38.0
1−4Season record4−1
4−6Last 105−5
—OutAdou Thiero F · Ziaire Williams F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAL chance
Our model fair46.3%53.7%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket US55.7%50.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:29 AM CTPolymarket US4:29 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+11646%−12655.7%−12655.7%——
LALLos Angeles Lakers−11654%+10149.7%−10350.7%——
SpreadLAL by 1.0
MIAMiami Heat+1our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.9
Over237.9our total————
Under237.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 1.0 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more43%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more29%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.9 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.569%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24737%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Miami Heat
GKlay Thompsonlast game
GDavion Mitchelllast game
FGiannis Antetokounmpolast game
FAndrew Wigginslast game
CBam Adebayolast game
Los Angeles Lakers
GMatisse Thybullelast game
GAustin Reaveslast game
GQuentin Grimeslast game
FJake LaRavialast game
CWalker Kesslerlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAL
Oct 30 vs IND
last game
Oct 30 at GS
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Miami Heat
MIASimone Fontecchio F · illnessDay-to-day
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero F · left knee inflammationOut
LALZiaire Williams F · left footOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIA·LAL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
113.0
points / game
123.2
120.8
points allowed / game
113.6
1−4
season record
4−1
0−3
home record
2−1
1−1
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
45.4
FG%
52.8
32.0
3P%
39.0
42.8
rebounds / game
38.0
27.0
assists / game
24.0
14.8
turnovers / game
17.0
52.4
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

MIA · LAL · 10 days
Miami HeatLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 5−5
Mar 19at MIALAL 134 − 126
Nov 2, 2025at LALLAL 130 − 120
Jan 15, 2025at LALLAL 117 − 108
Dec 4, 2024at MIAMIA 134 − 93
Jan 3, 2024at LALMIA 110 − 96
Nov 6, 2023at MIAMIA 108 − 107
Jan 4, 2023at LALLAL 112 − 109
Dec 28, 2022at MIAMIA 112 − 98
Jan 23, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 107
Nov 10, 2021at LALLAL 120 − 117

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at ATL129 − 117W
Oct 26vs DAL109 − 113L
Oct 24at CHA110 − 115L
Oct 23vs DET111 − 128L
Oct 21vs MIN106 − 131L
Apr 12vs ATL143 − 117W
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28at LAC103 − 87W
Oct 27vs POR129 − 136L
Oct 25at UTAH132 − 123W
Oct 23vs LAC125 − 117W
Oct 21vs GS127 − 105W
May 11vs OKC110 − 115L
May 9vs OKC108 − 131L
May 7at OKC107 − 125L
May 5at OKC90 − 108L
May 1at HOU98 − 78W