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Magic at Warriors

NBA · Saturday, Nov 7 · 7:30 PM CT · Chase Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
GS by 2.2
Expected score
GS 115.4 – 113.2 ORL
Expected total
228.6
MagicThe matchupWarriors
+117Our fair odds−117
113.2Expected points115.4
+0.07Power rating−0.03
109.8Points / game116.7
118.4Allowed / game115.3
45.8FG%44.7
35.63P%38.2
39.4Rebounds / game43.8
2−3Season record3−3
4−6Last 104−6
Izaiyah Nelson F · Jalen Suggs G
Jonathan Isaac F · Noah Penda F
Paolo Banchero FOut (5 each)Draymond Green F · Jimmy Butler III F
Kristaps Porzingis C · Moses Moody G
Stephen Curry G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · GS chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+11746%————
GSGolden State Warriors−11754%————
SpreadGS by 2.2
ORLOrlando Magic+2.2our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.6
Over228.6our total————
Under228.6our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.2 expected
Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%
← ORL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more46%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more32%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.6 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banelast game
GAnthony Blacklast game
GJase Richardsonlast game
FFranz Wagnerlast game
CWendell Carter Jr.last game
Golden State Warriors
GBrandin Podziemskilast game
FGui Santoslast game
FYaxel Lendeborglast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·GS
Oct 30 at TOR
last game
Oct 30 vs LAL
7 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Orlando Magic
ORLIzaiyah Nelson FOut
ORLJalen Suggs G · right knee, back about Nov 10Out
ORLJonathan Isaac F · left knee, back about Nov 10Out
ORLNoah Penda F · right hamstring, back about Nov 18Out
ORLPaolo Banchero F · right ankle sprain, back about Nov 22Out
Golden State Warriors
GSDraymond Green F · restOut
GSJimmy Butler III F · right knee surgery, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
GSKristaps Porzingis C · illness, back about Dec 1Out
GSMoses Moody G · left knee surgery, back about Dec 1Out
GSStephen Curry G · restOut
GSGui Santos F · left kneeDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ORL·GS
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
109.8
points / game
116.7
118.4
points allowed / game
115.3
2−3
season record
3−3
0−2
home record
1−1
2−1
away record
2−2
W1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
4−6
45.8
FG%
44.7
35.6
3P%
38.2
39.4
rebounds / game
43.8
26.8
assists / game
26.5
17.0
turnovers / game
17.3
44.0
points in paint / game
43.3

Rating Trend

ORL · GS · 11 days
Orlando MagicGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 6−4
Dec 22, 2025at GSGS 120 − 97
Nov 18, 2025at ORLORL 121 − 113
Feb 27, 2025at ORLGS 121 − 115
Feb 3, 2025at GSGS 104 − 99
Mar 27, 2024at ORLGS 101 − 93
Jan 2, 2024at GSGS 121 − 115
Jan 7, 2023at GSORL 115 − 101
Nov 3, 2022at ORLORL 130 − 129
Mar 22, 2022at ORLORL 94 − 90
Dec 6, 2021at GSGS 126 − 95

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 30at TOR121 − 114W
Oct 28at TOR99 − 129L
Oct 25at NY111 − 102W
Oct 23vs MIN93 − 115L
Oct 21vs ATL125 − 132L
May 3at DET94 − 116L
May 1vs DET79 − 93L
Apr 29at DET109 − 116L
Apr 27vs DET94 − 88W
Apr 25vs DET113 − 105W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 30vs LAL112 − 95W
Oct 28at MIN119 − 114W
Oct 26at DEN134 − 114W
Oct 24at PHX122 − 131L
Oct 23vs MEM108 − 111L
Oct 21at LAL105 − 127L
Apr 12at LAC110 − 115L
Apr 10at SAC118 − 124L
Apr 9vs LAL103 − 119L
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W