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Warriors at Timberwolves

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final GS 119 – MIN 114
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS30342926119
MIN23253333114
Team box
GS·MIN
39-89
field goals
40-90
11-35
3-pointers
15-45
30-37
free throws
19-27
53
rebounds
42
25
assists
31
17
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS324486
Yaxel LendeborgGS352691
Jonathan KumingaMIN322035
Jaden McDanielsMIN351974
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN271962
Ayo DosunmuMIN321734

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +24
GS +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 5 · GS 24lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 39%, MIN 61% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
MIN by 4.4
Expected score
MIN 116.5 – 112.1 GS
Expected total
228.7
WarriorsThe matchupTimberwolves
+154Our fair odds−154
112.1Expected points116.5
−0.24Power rating+0.54
117.2Points / game122.0
120.8Allowed / game105.0
45.2FG%48.5
37.53P%40.0
41.5Rebounds / game54.0
1−3Season record3−1
2−8Last 105−5
Gui Santos · Jimmy Butler III
Kristaps Porzingis · Moses MoodyOutAnthony Edwards · Donte DiVincenzo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · MIN chance
Our model fair39.4%60.6%
Kalshi43.7%59.7%
Polymarket US43.7%60.7%
ProphetX42.8%59.8%
Novig41.5%59.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:58 PM CT
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+15439%+12943.7%+12943.7%+13342.8%+14141.5%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−15461%−14859.7%−15460.7%−14959.8%−14459.0%
SpreadMIN by 4.4
GSGolden State Warriors+4.4our margin+3.5 +10149.7%+3.5 +10149.7%+3.5 +10249.6%+3.5 +10449.0%
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.4our margin−3.5 −12154.7%−3.5 −12154.7%−3.5 −11353.1%−3.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our totalo227.5 −11252.7%o227.5 −11252.7%o227.5 −10751.7%o227.5 −10451.0%
Under228.7our totalu227.5 −11252.7%u227.5 −10751.7%u227.5 −10551.2%u227.5 +10050.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.4 expected
Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%
← GS wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more52%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more37%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGeorges Niangstarted
FYaxel Lendeborgstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GAyo Dosunmustarted
GLaMelo Ballstarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·MIN
Oct 26 at DEN
last game
Oct 26 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 6:45 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSGui Santos · left knee tendinitisOut
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl repair / surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · not with teamOut
GSMoses Moody · inflammation / soreness left patellar tendon repair / surgeryOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee injury managementOut
MINDonte DiVincenzo · right achilles tendon repair / surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
GS·MIN
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
117.2
points / game
122.0
120.8
points allowed / game
105.0
1−3
season record
3−1
0−1
home record
1−0
1−2
away record
2−1
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
45.2
FG%
48.5
37.5
3P%
40.0
41.5
rebounds / game
54.0
25.8
assists / game
26.0
17.5
turnovers / game
17.5
44.5
points in paint / game
49.5

Rating Trend

GS · MIN · 8 days
Golden State WarriorsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Mar 13at GSMIN 127 − 117
Jan 26at MINMIN 108 − 83
Jan 25at MINGS 111 − 85
Dec 12, 2025at GSMIN 127 − 120
May 14, 2025at MINMIN 121 − 110post
May 12, 2025at GSMIN 117 − 110post
May 10, 2025at GSMIN 102 − 97post
May 8, 2025at MINMIN 117 − 93post
May 6, 2025at MINGS 99 − 88post
Jan 15, 2025at MINGS 116 − 115

GS · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 26at DEN134 − 114W
Oct 24at PHX122 − 131L
Oct 23vs MEM108 − 111L
Oct 21at LAL105 − 127L
Apr 12at LAC110 − 115L
Apr 10at SAC118 − 124L
Apr 9vs LAL103 − 119L
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L
Apr 2vs CLE111 − 118L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 26at CLE125 − 127L
Oct 25vs TOR117 − 94W
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L
May 4at SA104 − 102W