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Lakers at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Oct 30 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final LAL 95 – GS 112
← NBA / Oct 30

Box score and game flow are added the next morning.

Final · our forecast was LAL 58%, GS 42% · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
LAL by 3.5
Expected score
LAL 118.6 – 115.0 GS
Expected total
233.6
LakersThe matchupWarriors
−140Our fair odds+140
118.6Expected points115.0
+0.49Power rating−0.13
123.2Points / game117.6
113.6Allowed / game119.4
52.8FG%45.0
39.03P%36.2
38.0Rebounds / game43.8
4−1Season record2−3
5−5Last 103−7
Adou Thiero · Cameron Carr
Ziaire WilliamsOut (3 each)Jimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
Moses Moody

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · GS chance
Our model fair58.3%41.7%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket US57.7%46.7%
ProphetX57.0%45.4%
Novig56.5%44.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:59 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 8:58 PM CT
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−14058%−14258.7%−13657.7%−13357.0%−13056.5%
GSGolden State Warriors+14042%+11446.7%+11446.7%+12045.4%+12544.5%
SpreadLAL by 3.5
LALLos Angeles Lakers−3.5our margin−2.5 −12154.7%−2.5 −12154.7%−2.5 −11453.3%−2.5 −11152.5%
GSGolden State Warriors+3.5our margin+2.5 −10350.7%+2.5 +10149.7%+2.5 +10449.1%+2.5 +10848.0%
Totalwe expect 233.6
Over233.6our totalo233.5 −12154.7%o233.5 −12154.7%o233.5 −11653.8%o233.5 −11353.0%
Under233.6our totalu233.5 +10149.7%u233.5 +10149.7%u233.5 +10548.9%u233.5 +11147.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 3.5 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%
← LAL wins byGS wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more50%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more35%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.6 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMatisse Thybullestarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CWalker Kesslerstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
FYaxel Lendeborgstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·GS
Oct 28 at LAC
last game
Oct 28 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 30, 4:15 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee injury managementOut
LALCameron Carr · right oblique strainOut
LALZiaire Williams · left foot / heel injury managementOut
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl repair / surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · not with teamOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon repair / surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
LAL·GS
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
123.2
points / game
117.6
113.6
points allowed / game
119.4
4−1
season record
2−3
2−1
home record
0−1
2−0
away record
2−2
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
3−7
52.8
FG%
45.0
39.0
3P%
36.2
38.0
rebounds / game
43.8
24.0
assists / game
25.6
17.0
turnovers / game
17.4
50.0
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

LAL · GS · 10 days
Los Angeles LakersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 3−7
Oct 21at LALLAL 127 − 105
Apr 9at GSLAL 119 − 103
Feb 28at GSLAL 129 − 101
Feb 7at LALLAL 105 − 99
Oct 21, 2025at LALGS 119 − 109
Apr 3, 2025at LALGS 123 − 116
Feb 6, 2025at LALLAL 120 − 112
Jan 25, 2025at GSLAL 118 − 108
Dec 25, 2024at GSLAL 115 − 113
Apr 9, 2024at LALGS 134 − 120

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28at LAC103 − 87W
Oct 27vs POR129 − 136L
Oct 25at UTAH132 − 123W
Oct 23vs LAC125 − 117W
Oct 21vs GS127 − 105W
May 11vs OKC110 − 115L
May 9vs OKC108 − 131L
May 7at OKC107 − 125L
May 5at OKC90 − 108L
May 1at HOU98 − 78W

GS · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Oct 28at MIN119 − 114W
Oct 26at DEN134 − 114W
Oct 24at PHX122 − 131L
Oct 23vs MEM108 − 111L
Oct 21at LAL105 − 127L
Apr 12at LAC110 − 115L
Apr 10at SAC118 − 124L
Apr 9vs LAL103 − 119L
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L