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Wizards at Thunder

NBA · Saturday, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
OKC by 16.8
Expected score
OKC 122.5 – 105.6 WSH
Expected total
228.1
WizardsThe matchupThunder
+681Our fair odds−681
105.6Expected points122.5
−1.00Power rating+1.20
110.5Points / game108.2
109.7Allowed / game104.6
46.3FG%44.0
28.83P%31.6
42.0Rebounds / game46.0
3−3Season record4−1
3−7Last 106−4
Jamir Watkins G · Justin Champagnie F
Tristan Vukcevic FOutAlex Caruso G · Cason Wallace G
Chet Holmgren C · Jalen Williams G
Nikola Topic G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · OKC chance
Our model fair12.8%87.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Wizards+68113%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−68187%————
SpreadOKC by 16.8
WSHWashington Wizards+16.8our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−16.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.1
Over228.1our total————
Under228.1our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 16.8 expected
Washington Wizards by 53 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 52 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 51 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 50 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 49 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← WSH wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more82%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more70%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more56%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Washington Wizards
GTrae Younglast game
FAnthony Davislast game
FAJ Dybantsalast game
FKyshawn Georgelast game
CAlex Sarrlast game
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamslast game
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderlast game
GJared McCainlast game
GAjay Mitchelllast game
CIsaiah Hartensteinlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·OKC
Oct 30 vs CHA
last game
Oct 28 at DAL
7 days
days of rest
9 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Washington Wizards
WSHJamir Watkins GOut
WSHJustin Champagnie F · right foot, back about Feb 25, 2027Out
WSHTristan Vukcevic F · left hipOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso G · right ankleOut
OKCCason Wallace G · left shoulder surgery, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
OKCChet Holmgren C · right knee, back about Jan 2, 2027Out
OKCJalen Williams G · left leg fracture, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
OKCNikola Topic G · backOut
OKCThomas Sorber C · kneeOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
WSH·OKC
−1.00
rating (0 = average)
+1.20
110.5
points / game
108.2
109.7
points allowed / game
104.6
3−3
season record
4−1
2−1
home record
3−0
1−2
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
46.3
FG%
44.0
28.8
3P%
31.6
42.0
rebounds / game
46.0
24.5
assists / game
22.0
14.8
turnovers / game
14.8
52.3
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

WSH · OKC · 11 days
Washington WizardsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 8−2
Mar 21at WSHOKC 132 − 111
Oct 30, 2025at OKCOKC 127 − 108
Jan 12, 2025at WSHOKC 136 − 95
Dec 23, 2024at OKCOKC 123 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at OKCOKC 147 − 106
Jan 8, 2024at WSHOKC 136 − 128
Jan 6, 2023at OKCOKC 127 − 110
Nov 16, 2022at WSHOKC 121 − 120
Jan 11, 2022at WSHWSH 122 − 118
Nov 26, 2021at OKCWSH 101 − 99

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 30vs CHA95 − 79W
Oct 28at CLE111 − 121L
Oct 26at CHA103 − 110L
Oct 24at CHI124 − 120W
Oct 23vs TOR102 − 112L
Oct 21vs MIL128 − 116W
Apr 12at CLE117 − 130L
Apr 10vs MIA117 − 140L
Apr 9vs CHI108 − 119L
Apr 7vs CHI98 − 129L

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 28at DAL96 − 120L
Oct 26vs PHX125 − 114W
Oct 25vs LAC108 − 101W
Oct 22vs DEN96 − 84W
Oct 20at SA116 − 104W
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W