bayesRatings

Browns at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final CLE 13 – NE 32
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE700613
NE3621232
Team box
CLE·NE
213
total yards
422
145
passing yards
245
68
rushing yards
177
12
first downs
23
2-11
third downs
3-11
2
turnovers
2
23:48
time of possession
36:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dillon GabrielCLE21/3515622
Drake MayeNE18/2428231
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Malachi CorleyCLE1310
TreVeyon HendersonNE10750
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE6621
Mack HollinsNE7890

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +23
CLE +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 23 · CLE 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 31%, NE 69% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 9.6
Expected score
NE 23.3 – 13.7 CLE
Expected total
37.0
BrownsThe matchupPatriots
+222Our fair odds−222
13.7Expected points23.3
−0.63Power rating−0.14
16.1Points / game25.9
21.7Allowed / game19.0
271Total yards / game343
4.1Yards / play5.8
178Passing yards / game240
2−5Season record5−2
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · NE chance
Our model fair31.0%69.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Browns+22231%————
NENew England Patriots−22269%————
SpreadNE by 9.6
CLECleveland Browns+9.6our margin————
NENew England Patriots−9.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.0
Over37.0our total————
Under37.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 9.6 expected
Cleveland Browns by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 6%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 6%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 3%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%New England Patriots by 48 points: <1%
← CLE wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more69%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more54%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more46%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.0 expected
4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.568%
Total over 37.547%
Total over 44.527%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CLEDillon Gabriel · last 3 games: 59% completions, 176 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 77% completions, 252 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·NE
Oct 19, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Oct 19, 2025 at TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CLE·NE
−0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
16.1
points / game
25.9
21.7
points allowed / game
19.0
2−5
season record
5−2
2−2
home record
1−2
0−3
away record
4−0
W1
streak
W4
2−8
last 10
6−4
271
total yards / game
343
4.1
yards / play
5.8
178
passing yards / game
240
93
rushing yards / game
103
17.4
first downs / game
20.0
1.1
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

CLE · NE · 20 days
Cleveland BrownsNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NE 2−0
Oct 16, 2022at CLENE 38 − 15
Nov 14, 2021at NENE 45 − 7

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 19, 2025vs MIA31 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L

NE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L