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Cowboys at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 3:25 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final DAL 24 – DEN 44
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL377724
DEN141331444
Team box
DAL·DEN
339
total yards
426
231
passing yards
247
108
rushing yards
179
24
first downs
25
4-11
third downs
5-8
2
turnovers
1
33:32
time of possession
26:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL19/3118802
Bo NixDEN19/2924741
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL13412
J.K. DobbinsDEN151110
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George PickensDAL7780
Troy FranklinDEN6892

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +27
DAL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 27 · DAL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 33%, DEN 67% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 7.1
Expected score
DEN 28.4 – 21.3 DAL
Expected total
49.7
CowboysThe matchupBroncos
+207Our fair odds−207
21.3Expected points28.4
−0.06Power rating+0.34
31.7Points / game23.3
29.4Allowed / game18.1
391Total yards / game347
6.1Yards / play5.3
268Passing yards / game215
3−3−1Season record5−2
4−5−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair32.6%67.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+20733%————
DENDenver Broncos−20767%————
SpreadDEN by 7.1
DALDallas Cowboys+7.1our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−7.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.7
Over49.7our total————
Under49.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 7.1 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 46 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 45 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 44 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 43 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 42 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 6%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more63%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more47%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.7 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.567%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.531%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 69% completions, 254 yds/game, 10 TD, 0 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 59% completions, 232 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·DEN
Oct 19, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Oct 19, 2025 vs NYG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
DAL·DEN
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
31.7
points / game
23.3
29.4
points allowed / game
18.1
3−3−1
season record
5−2
2−0−1
home record
3−0
1−3
away record
2−2
W1
streak
W4
4−5−1
last 10
6−4
391
total yards / game
347
6.1
yards / play
5.3
268
passing yards / game
215
122
rushing yards / game
132
23.0
first downs / game
20.1
0.9
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

DAL · DEN · 20 days
Dallas CowboysDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DEN 1−0
Nov 7, 2021at DALDEN 30 − 16

DAL · Last 10

4−5−1 · streak W1
Oct 19, 2025vs WSH44 − 22W
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L