bayesRatings

Jets at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final NYJ 39 – CIN 38
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ01332339
CIN10147738
Team box
NYJ·CIN
502
total yards
398
248
passing yards
217
254
rushing yards
181
25
first downs
24
7-15
third downs
4-9
0
turnovers
0
33:40
time of possession
26:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Justin FieldsNYJ21/3224410
Joe FlaccoCIN21/3422320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Breece HallNYJ181332
Samaje PerineCIN9941
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyler JohnsonNYJ3641
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN12910

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +15
NYJ +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 15 · NYJ 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 26%, CIN 74% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
CIN by 7.7
Expected score
CIN 28.5 – 20.8 NYJ
Expected total
49.2
JetsThe matchupBengals
+284Our fair odds−284
20.8Expected points28.5
−0.94Power rating−0.18
18.4Points / game19.4
26.1Allowed / game30.6
271Total yards / game269
4.5Yards / play4.5
143Passing yards / game200
0−7Season record3−4
1−9Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · CIN chance
Our model fair26.1%73.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+28426%————
CINCincinnati Bengals−28474%————
SpreadCIN by 7.7
NYJNew York Jets+7.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals−7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.2
Over49.2our total————
Under49.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 7.7 expected
New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 3%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 6%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 45 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 46 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 47 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more64%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more49%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.2 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.546%
Total over 56.530%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 63% completions, 125 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
CINJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 60% completions, 248 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·CIN
Oct 19, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Oct 16, 2025 vs PIT
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
NYJ·CIN
−0.94
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
18.4
points / game
19.4
26.1
points allowed / game
30.6
0−7
season record
3−4
0−5
home record
2−1
0−2
away record
1−3
L7
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
6−4
271
total yards / game
269
4.5
yards / play
4.5
143
passing yards / game
200
128
rushing yards / game
69
17.6
first downs / game
17.7
1.4
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

NYJ · CIN · 20 days
New York JetsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CIN 1−1
Sep 25, 2022at NYJCIN 27 − 12
Oct 31, 2021at NYJNYJ 34 − 31

NYJ · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W