bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 3:05 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final TB 23 – NO 3
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB0710623
NO03003
Team box
TB·NO
212
total yards
275
124
passing yards
227
88
rushing yards
48
14
first downs
17
3-13
third downs
8-16
1
turnovers
4
32:56
time of possession
27:04
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB15/2415200
Tyler ShoughNO17/3012801
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Sean TuckerTB12421
Alvin KamaraNO6210
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tez JohnsonTB5430
Rashid ShaheedNO9750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +20
TB +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 0 · TB 20lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 67%, NO 33% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 5.9
Expected score
TB 26.3 – 20.4 NO
Expected total
46.8
BuccaneersThe matchupSaints
−203Our fair odds+203
26.3Expected points20.4
+0.42Power rating−0.71
24.9Points / game17.9
25.0Allowed / game26.6
339Total yards / game298
5.5Yards / play4.8
239Passing yards / game198
5−2Season record1−6
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NO chance
Our model fair67.0%33.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−20367%————
NONew Orleans Saints+20333%————
SpreadTB by 5.9
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−5.9our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints+5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.8
Over46.8our total————
Under46.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.9 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 6%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%
← TB wins byNO wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more63%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 70% completions, 288 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 1 game: 0% completions, 0 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NO
Oct 20, 2025 at DET
last game
Oct 19, 2025 at CHI
5 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
TB·NO
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.71
24.9
points / game
17.9
25.0
points allowed / game
26.6
5−2
season record
1−6
2−1
home record
1−3
3−1
away record
0−3
L1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
1−9
339
total yards / game
298
5.5
yards / play
4.8
239
passing yards / game
198
100
rushing yards / game
100
19.6
first downs / game
19.4
0.6
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

TB · NO · 20 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NO 3−5
Jan 5, 2025at TBTB 27 − 19
Oct 13, 2024at NOTB 51 − 27
Dec 31, 2023at TBNO 23 − 13
Oct 1, 2023at NOTB 26 − 9
Dec 5, 2022at TBTB 17 − 16
Sep 18, 2022at NOTB 20 − 10
Dec 19, 2021at TBNO 9 − 0
Oct 31, 2021at NONO 36 − 27

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L