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Commanders at Chiefs

NFL · Monday, Oct 27 · 7:15 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final WSH 7 – KC 28
← NFL / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH07007
KC0714728
Team box
WSH·KC
260
total yards
432
200
passing yards
284
60
rushing yards
148
14
first downs
26
7-12
third downs
4-10
2
turnovers
2
25:57
time of possession
34:03
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Marcus MariotaWSH21/3021312
Patrick MahomesKC25/3429932
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Marcus MariotaWSH8280
Isiah PachecoKC12580
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jeremy McNicholsWSH5640
Travis KelceKC6991

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +21
WSH +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 21 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 30%, KC 70% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 7.3
Expected score
KC 27.6 – 20.4 WSH
Expected total
48.0
CommandersThe matchupChiefs
+230Our fair odds−230
20.4Expected points27.6
+0.09Power rating+0.62
25.7Points / game26.6
24.3Allowed / game17.7
345Total yards / game371
5.9Yards / play5.7
196Passing yards / game247
3−4Season record4−3
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · KC chance
Our model fair30.3%69.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+23030%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−23070%————
SpreadKC by 7.3
WSHWashington Commanders+7.3our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.0
Over48.0our total————
Under48.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 7.3 expected
Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 9 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 6%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 44 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 45 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 46 points: <1%
← WSH wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more63%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more48%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.0 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.565%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.529%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 60% completions, 142 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 73% completions, 287 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·KC
Oct 19, 2025 at DAL
last game
Oct 19, 2025 vs LV
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
WSH·KC
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.62
25.7
points / game
26.6
24.3
points allowed / game
17.7
3−4
season record
4−3
2−1
home record
3−1
1−3
away record
1−2
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
345
total yards / game
371
5.9
yards / play
5.7
196
passing yards / game
247
149
rushing yards / game
123
19.4
first downs / game
23.3
1.1
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

WSH · KC · 21 days
Washington CommandersKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · KC 1−0
Oct 17, 2021at WSHKC 31 − 13

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 19, 2025at DAL22 − 44L
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 19, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W