bayesRatings

Jaguars at Raiders

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 3:05 PM CT · Allegiant Stadium · Final JAX 30 – LV 29
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
JAX03317730
LV06314629
Team box
JAX·LV
367
total yards
331
216
passing yards
274
151
rushing yards
57
26
first downs
26
9-16
third downs
7-10
1
turnovers
1
42:57
time of possession
26:47
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX23/3422001
Geno SmithLV29/3928441
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX22840
Ashton JeantyLV13420
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Parker WashingtonJAX8900
Brock BowersLV121273

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LV +7
JAX +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: LV 6 · JAX 7lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 54%, LV 46% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
JAX by 0.9
Expected score
JAX 19.5 – 18.6 LV
Expected total
38.1
JaguarsThe matchupRaiders
−116Our fair odds+116
19.5Expected points18.6
−0.25Power rating−0.77
20.9Points / game14.7
22.1Allowed / game25.7
335Total yards / game276
5.1Yards / play4.9
215Passing yards / game183
4−3Season record2−5
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · LV chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−11654%————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+11646%————
SpreadJAX by 0.9
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−0.9our margin————
LVLas Vegas Raiders+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.1
Over38.1our total————
Under38.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.9 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 9%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 7%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%
← JAX wins byLV wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more49%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more30%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.1 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.568%
Total over 38.547%
Total over 45.527%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 59% completions, 258 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 69% completions, 156 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·LV
Oct 19, 2025 vs LAR
last game
Oct 19, 2025 at KC
13 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
JAX·LV
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.77
20.9
points / game
14.7
22.1
points allowed / game
25.7
4−3
season record
2−5
3−2
home record
1−2
1−1
away record
1−3
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
335
total yards / game
276
5.1
yards / play
4.9
215
passing yards / game
183
120
rushing yards / game
94
19.1
first downs / game
15.9
0.9
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

JAX · LV · 23 days
Jacksonville JaguarsLas Vegas Raiders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · LV 1−1
Dec 22, 2024at LVLV 19 − 14
Nov 6, 2022at JAXJAX 27 − 20

JAX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 19, 2025at KC0 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W