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Vikings at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final MIN 27 – DET 24
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN1437327
DET773724
Team box
MIN·DET
258
total yards
305
116
passing yards
240
142
rushing yards
65
20
first downs
15
4-12
third downs
5-17
1
turnovers
1
28:52
time of possession
31:08
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.J. McCarthyMIN14/2514321
Jared GoffDET25/3728420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Aaron Jones Sr.MIN9780
David MontgomeryDET11401
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jordan AddisonMIN2480
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET9970

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +10
MIN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 7 · MIN 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 22%, DET 78% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 10.7
Expected score
DET 31.9 – 21.1 MIN
Expected total
53.0
VikingsThe matchupLions
+357Our fair odds−357
21.1Expected points31.9
+0.12Power rating+1.11
22.1Points / game30.7
23.1Allowed / game21.6
297Total yards / game357
5.1Yards / play5.9
203Passing yards / game224
3−4Season record5−2
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DET chance
Our model fair21.9%78.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Vikings+35722%————
DETDetroit Lions−35778%————
SpreadDET by 10.7
MINMinnesota Vikings+10.7our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−10.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.0
Over53.0our total————
Under53.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 10.7 expected
Minnesota Vikings by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 5%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 6%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 29 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 47 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 48 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more72%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more57%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.0 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.564%
Total over 53.546%
Total over 60.531%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MINJ.J. McCarthy · last 2 games: 59% completions, 150 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 77% completions, 234 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DET
Oct 23, 2025 at LAC
last game
Oct 20, 2025 vs TB
9 days
days of rest
12 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
MIN·DET
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+1.11
22.1
points / game
30.7
23.1
points allowed / game
21.6
3−4
season record
5−2
1−2
home record
3−0
2−2
away record
2−2
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
297
total yards / game
357
5.1
yards / play
5.9
203
passing yards / game
224
94
rushing yards / game
134
17.4
first downs / game
19.9
1.7
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

MIN · DET · 23 days
Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DET 6−2
Jan 5, 2025at DETDET 31 − 9
Oct 20, 2024at MINDET 31 − 29
Jan 7, 2024at DETDET 30 − 20
Dec 24, 2023at MINDET 30 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DETDET 34 − 23
Sep 25, 2022at MINMIN 28 − 24
Dec 5, 2021at DETDET 29 − 27
Oct 10, 2021at MINMIN 19 − 17

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 23, 2025at LAC10 − 37L
Oct 19, 2025vs PHI22 − 28L
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W