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Blackhawks at Lightning

NHL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
TB by 2.2
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 2.2 CHI
Expected total
6.5
BlackhawksThe matchupLightning
+351Our fair odds−351
2.2Expected goals4.3
−0.58Power rating+0.30
2.1Goals / game3.7
3.7Allowed / game3.2
21.6Shots / game30.4
42.7Faceoff %48.0
16.3Hits / game21.8
4−9Season record8−4
4−6Last 107−3
Ryan Ellis DOut (1 each)Yanni Gourde C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · TB chance
Our model fair22.2%77.8%
Kalshi25.3%80.2%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:13 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+35122%+29625.3%———
TBTampa Bay Lightning−35178%−40480.2%———
SpreadTB by 2.2
CHIChicago Blackhawks+2.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 2.2 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 8 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 22%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 8 goals: 1%
← CHI wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more65%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more52%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more6%
Decided by one goal29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 13%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.549%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .846 save %, 4.47 GAAexpected
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.41 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·TB
Oct 29 at DET
last game
Oct 29 vs WPG
6 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Chicago Blackhawks
CHIBowen Byram D · upper bodyDay-to-day
CHIRyan Ellis DIR
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBZemgus Girgensons C · lower bodyDay-to-day
TBYanni Gourde C · hip surgery, back about Dec 2IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
CHI·TB
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
2.1
goals / game
3.7
3.7
goals allowed / game
3.2
4−9
season record
8−4
4−4
home record
6−0
0−5
away record
2−4
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
21.6
shots / game
30.4
42.7
faceoff %
48.0
16.3
hits / game
21.8
11.3
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.2
takeaways / game
3.4
18.0
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

CHI · TB · 31 days
Chicago BlackhawksTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Jan 23at CHITB 2 − 1 SO
Oct 23, 2025at TBCHI 3 − 2
Jan 28, 2025at TBCHI 4 − 1
Jan 24, 2025at CHITB 4 − 3 OT
Nov 16, 2023at CHITB 4 − 2
Nov 9, 2023at TBCHI 5 − 3
Mar 11, 2023at TBTB 3 − 1
Jan 3, 2023at CHITB 4 − 1
Apr 1, 2022at TBTB 5 − 2
Mar 6, 2022at CHITB 6 − 3

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 29at DET1 − 4L
Oct 27vs LA2 − 1W
Oct 25vs FLA2 − 3L
Oct 23vs MTL1 − 4L
Oct 17vs DAL0 − 4L
Oct 15vs WPG4 − 3W
Oct 13vs PIT5 − 3W
Oct 10vs CAR2 − 5L
Oct 8at NYI1 − 4L
Oct 6vs STL4 − 2W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 29vs WPG6 − 4W
Oct 24at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 23at COL3 − 6L
Oct 20at VGK6 − 2W
Oct 17vs VAN4 − 2W
Oct 15vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 13at NYR1 − 4L
Oct 10at NYI5 − 3W
Oct 8vs MIN3 − 2W
Oct 5vs PHI4 − 1W