Chance to win, from our model · Updated Nov 12
Warren Foegele LW · William Eklund LW
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshi8:11 AM CT | Polymarket US8:11 AM CT | ProphetX8:04 AM CT | Novig8:07 AM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| COLColorado Avalanche | −10852% | −11653.7% | −11954.4% | −11152.7% | −10852.0% |
| OTTOttawa Senators | +10848% | −10350.7% | −10651.4% | −10050.0% | +10449.0% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| COLColorado Avalanche | −0.2our margin | −1.5 +21831.5% | −1.5 +20333.0% | −1.5 +22031.3% | −1.5 +22830.5% |
| OTTOttawa Senators | +0.2our margin | +1.5 −26372.4% | +1.5 −25772.0% | +1.5 −25271.6% | +1.5 −23970.5% |
| Totalwe expect 6.3 | |||||
| Over | 6.3our total | o6.5 −10350.7% | o6.5 −10150.4% | o6.5 −10050.0% | o6.5 +10449.0% |
| Under | 6.3our total | u6.5 −11653.7% | u6.5 −12455.4% | u6.5 −11052.4% | u6.5 −10651.5% |
Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,148 past NHL games.
Total range
6.3 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,148 past NHL games.
Probable Starting Goalies
as announcedStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Current team injury listsFor context, not in our forecast.