bayesRatings

Rangers at Twins

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 3:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final TEX 6 – MIN 2
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0401100006130
MIN100000010281
Team box
TEX·MIN
13
hits
8
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
150
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Danny JansenTEX2-4212
Jake BurgerTEX1-5111
Alejandro OsunaTEX2-3101
Evan CarterTEX2-4101
Josh BellMIN1-4001
Kody ClemensMIN1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan EovaldiTEX4.14123
Robert Garcia (W)TEX1.21000
Bailey Ober (L)MIN5.010615

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · TEX 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 49%, MIN 51% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.8 – 4.6 MIN
Expected total
9.3
RangersThe matchupTwins
+102Our fair odds−102
4.8Expected runs4.6
−0.06Power rating−0.13
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.9
8.0Hits / game8.2
1.11Home runs / game1.16
3.3Walks drawn / game3.1
79−81Season record76−84
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:09 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10249%−12655.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10251%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byMIN wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·MIN
Sep 25 at MIN
last game
Sep 25 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
TEX·MIN
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
79−81
season record
76−84
45−36
home record
41−38
34−45
away record
35−46
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
8.2
1.11
home runs / game
1.16
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.42
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

TEX · MIN · 182 days
Texas RangersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Sep 25at MINMIN 10 − 2
Jun 18at TEXMIN 9 − 3
Jun 16at TEXMIN 12 − 2
Jun 15at TEXMIN 4 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at TEXMIN 4 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at TEXMIN 4 − 1
Jun 12, 2025at MINTEX 16 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at MINTEX 16 − 4

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 25at MIN2 − 10L
Sep 24vs NYM3 − 1W
Sep 23vs NYM2 − 7L
Sep 22vs NYM3 − 6L
Sep 20vs TOR2 − 7L
Sep 19vs TOR6 − 2W
Sep 18vs TOR7 − 1W
Sep 17vs BOS3 − 4L
Sep 16vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 15vs BOS4 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 25vs TEX10 − 2W
Sep 23at SF4 − 2W
Sep 22at SF3 − 2W
Sep 21at SF2 − 5L
Sep 20at LAA8 − 0W
Sep 19at LAA5 − 6L
Sep 18at LAA3 − 0W
Sep 17at LAA4 − 5L
Sep 16vs NYY5 − 4W
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L