Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Player | Team | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | TB | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Aranda | TB | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Liam Hicks | TB | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chandler Simpson | TB | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (W) | TB | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Bryan Baker (S) | TB | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Parker Messick (L) | CLE | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was TB 53%, CLE 47% · Updated Oct 18
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 2:12 PM CT | Polymarket USpre-game · 3:59 PM CT | ProphetXpre-game · 3:59 PM CT | Novigpre-game · 3:58 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Rays | −11353% | −12655.7% | −12655.7% | −12154.8% | −11553.5% |
| CLECleveland Guardians | +11347% | +10548.7% | +10748.2% | +11047.6% | +11347.0% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Rays | −0.5our margin | — | −1.5 +13742.2% | −1.5 +14141.5% | −1.5 +15040.0% |
| CLECleveland Guardians | +0.5our margin | — | +1.5 −16161.7% | +1.5 −15560.8% | +1.5 −16061.5% |
| Totalwe expect 6.4 | |||||
| Over | 6.4our total | — | o6.5 +10548.7% | o6.5 +10748.2% | o6.5 +11147.5% |
| Under | 6.4our total | — | u6.5 −12355.2% | u6.5 −12154.8% | u6.5 −11553.5% |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Total range
6.4 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Starting Pitchers
from the box scoreStarting pitchers are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Weather
forecast for first pitch · NWSFor context, not in our forecast.
Who's Out
Injury list before the game · Oct 18, 2026, 2:40 PM CTFor context, not in our forecast.