bayesRatings

Guardians at Rays

MLB · Monday, Oct 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final CLE 3 – TB 7
← MLB / Oct 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000001020370
TB02100022770
Team box
CLE·TB
7
hits
7
0
home runs
2
5
walks
6
4
strikeouts
3
124
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB2-3212
Yandy DiazTB1-4112
Richie PalaciosTB2-4002
Nathaniel LoweCLE2-3101
Chase DeLauterCLE2-5200
Jo AdellCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shawn Armstrong (L)CLE1.01100
Freddy Peralta (W)TB5.15133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 42%, TB 58% · Updated Oct 19

Expected margin
TB by 0.6
Expected score
TB 3.9 – 3.3 CLE
Expected total
7.1
GuardiansThe matchupRays
+137Our fair odds−137
3.3Expected runs3.9
+0.05Power rating+0.23
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.1Allowed / game4.0
8.0Hits / game8.7
1.00Home runs / game1.04
3.5Walks drawn / game3.2
85−77 · 5−5 postSeason record98−64 · 6−2 post
5−5Last 107−3
Andrew WaltersOut (1 each)Shane McClanahan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.3%57.7%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket US43.7%60.2%
ProphetX42.8%59.5%
Novig42.0%58.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+13742%+12943.7%+12943.7%+13342.8%+13842.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays−13758%−15460.7%−15160.2%−14759.5%−14158.5%
SpreadTB by 0.6
CLECleveland Guardians+0.6our margin+1.5 −16862.7%+1.5 −17163.1%+1.5 −15961.4%+1.5 −16061.5%
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.6our margin−1.5 +14041.7%−1.5 +14640.7%−1.5 +14540.9%−1.5 +15339.5%
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our totalo6.5 −12655.7%o6.5 −12655.7%o6.5 −12255.0%o6.5 −11754.0%
Under7.1our totalu6.5 +10548.7%u6.5 +10748.2%u6.5 +11047.6%u6.5 +11347.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.6 expected
Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 19%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 12%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run33%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 7.540%
Total over 9.523%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEShawn Armstrong RP · last 3 starts: 5.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 0.56 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·TB
Oct 18 vs TB
last game
Oct 18 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 19, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
Cleveland Guardians
CLEAndrew Walters · right elbow, back about Feb 1, 2028Out
CLEColin Holderman · right wrist, back about Feb 1, 202715-day IL
CLERhys Hoskins · back10-day IL
Tampa Bay Rays
TBShane McClanahan · left forearm, back about Feb 1, 2027Out
TBEdwin Uceta · right shoulder60-day IL
TBGavin Lux · left shoulder60-day IL
TBJacob Melton · right hamstring, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBJonathan Heasley · right elbow60-day IL

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
CLE·TB
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
85−77 · 5−5 post
season record
98−64 · 6−2 post
41−40
home record
55−26
44−37
away record
43−38
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
8.7
1.00
home runs / game
1.04
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.52
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

CLE · TB · 202 days
Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 7−3
Oct 18at CLETB 3 − 1post
Oct 17at CLETB 7 − 3post
Oct 15at CLECLE 3 − 2post
Oct 13at TBTB 3 − 1post
Oct 12at TBCLE 7 − 3post
Jul 26at TBTB 1 − 0
Jul 25at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 24at TBTB 11 − 3
Apr 29at CLECLE 3 − 1
Apr 28at CLETB 1 − 0

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 18vs TB1 − 3L
Oct 17vs TB3 − 7L
Oct 15vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 13at TB1 − 3L
Oct 12at TB7 − 3W
Oct 10vs CHW2 − 0W
Oct 8at CHW9 − 5W
Oct 7at CHW9 − 3W
Oct 5vs CHW3 − 4L
Oct 3vs CHW0 − 3L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 18at CLE3 − 1W
Oct 17at CLE7 − 3W
Oct 15at CLE2 − 3L
Oct 13vs CLE3 − 1W
Oct 12vs CLE3 − 7L
Oct 7at NYY4 − 3W
Oct 5vs NYY5 − 2W
Oct 3vs NYY1 − 0W
Sep 27at PHI3 − 7L
Sep 26at PHI12 − 1W