Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| MIL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| Player | Team | H-AB | R | HR | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick | MIL | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Liam Hicks | TB | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| William Contreras | MIL | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jackson Chourio | MIL | 2-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Pratt | MIL | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | TB | 3.2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Tyler Wells (L) | TB | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Henderson | MIL | 3.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Abner Uribe (W) | MIL | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby (S) | MIL | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was TB 47%, MIL 53% · Updated Oct 24
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CT | Polymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CT | ProphetXpre-game · 6:57 PM CT | Novigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Rays | +11447% | −10350.7% | −10150.2% | +10149.8% | +10449.0% |
| MILMilwaukee Brewers | −11453% | −12154.7% | −11653.7% | −11052.4% | −10852.0% |
| Spreadabout even | |||||
| TBTampa Bay Rays | +0.2our margin | −1.5 +18135.6% | −1.5 +18135.6% | −1.5 +18135.6% | −1.5 +19434.0% |
| MILMilwaukee Brewers | −0.2our margin | +1.5 −21868.5% | +1.5 −21368.0% | +1.5 −21167.9% | +1.5 −19966.5% |
| Totalwe expect 7.1 | |||||
| Over | 7.1our total | o6.5 −10751.8% | o6.5 −10751.7% | o6.5 −10250.5% | o6.5 +10050.0% |
| Under | 7.1our total | u6.5 −11252.7% | u6.5 −10952.2% | u6.5 −11152.7% | u6.5 −10451.0% |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Even game expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Total range
7.1 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.
Starting Pitchers
from the box scoreStarting pitchers are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.
Weather
forecast for first pitch · NWSFor context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.
Who's Out
Injury list before the game · Oct 24, 2026, 5:40 PM CTFor context, not in our forecast.