bayesRatings

Rays at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM CT · American Family Field · Final TB 2 – MIL 3
← MLB / Oct 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000100001270
MIL20000010380
Team box
TB·MIL
7
hits
8
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
9
strikeouts
5
130
pitches thrown
133
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL2-3001
Jackson ChourioMIL2-4101
Jonathan ArandaTB3-3100
Christian YelichMIL1-4101
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4000
Liam HicksTB0-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (L)TB5.05205
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL5.04113
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 36%, MIL 64% · Updated Oct 23

Expected margin
MIL by 1.2
Expected score
MIL 4.2 – 3.0 TB
Expected total
7.1
RaysThe matchupBrewers
+174Our fair odds−174
3.0Expected runs4.2
+0.24Power rating+0.51
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.0Allowed / game3.8
8.7Hits / game8.8
1.04Home runs / game0.95
3.2Walks drawn / game4.1
98−64 · 7−2 postSeason record103−59 · 7−1 post
7−3Last 109−1
Shane McClanahanOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIL chance
Our model fair36.5%63.5%
Kalshi39.6%65.6%
Polymarket US39.1%64.6%
ProphetX38.6%64.2%
Novig37.5%63.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:57 PM CT
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+17436%+15239.6%+15639.1%+15938.6%+16737.5%
MILMilwaukee Brewers−17464%−19165.6%−18364.6%−18064.2%−17063.0%
SpreadMIL by 1.2
TBTampa Bay Rays+1.2our margin+1.5 −14859.7%+1.5 −14859.7%+1.5 −14158.5%+1.5 −13858.0%
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.2our margin−1.5 +12444.7%−1.5 +12644.2%−1.5 +12644.2%−1.5 +13542.5%
Totalwe expect 7.1
Over7.1our totalo6.5 −11653.7%o6.5 −11453.2%o6.5 −11252.9%o6.5 −10651.5%
Under7.1our totalu6.5 −10751.8%u6.5 −10350.7%u6.5 −10250.5%u6.5 +10449.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.2 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 19%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more45%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more32%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.1 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 11%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 7.540%
Total over 9.523%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 7 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 1.98 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIL
Oct 19 vs CLE
last game
Oct 15 at LAD
3 days
days of rest
7 days
3
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Weather

forecast for first pitch · NWS
temp58°F · mostly cloudy
wind5 mph SE
rain0% chance

For context, not in our forecast. Retractable roof, so it may be closed.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 23, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
Tampa Bay Rays
TBShane McClanahan · left forearm, back about Feb 1, 2027Out
TBEdwin Uceta · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBGavin Lux · left shoulder, back about Oct 2360-day IL
TBJacob Melton · right hamstring, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBJonathan Heasley · right elbow, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
Milwaukee Brewers
MILAngel Zerpa · left elbow, back about Jul 1, 202760-day IL
MILBrian Fitzpatrick · left elbow, back about Aug 1, 202760-day IL
MILQuinn Priester · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
TB·MIL
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.51
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.8
98−64 · 7−2 post
season record
103−59 · 7−1 post
55−26
home record
55−26
43−38
away record
48−33
W3
streak
W5
7−3
last 10
9−1
8.7
hits / game
8.8
1.04
home runs / game
0.95
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.1
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.57
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TB · MIL · 206 days
Tampa Bay RaysMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Apr 1at MILMIL 8 − 2
Mar 31at MILMIL 6 − 2
Mar 30at MILTB 3 − 2
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at MILMIL 8 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at MILTB 1 − 0
May 21, 2023at TBMIL 6 − 4

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 19vs CLE7 − 3W
Oct 18at CLE3 − 1W
Oct 17at CLE7 − 3W
Oct 15at CLE2 − 3L
Oct 13vs CLE3 − 1W
Oct 12vs CLE3 − 7L
Oct 7at NYY4 − 3W
Oct 5vs NYY5 − 2W
Oct 3vs NYY1 − 0W
Sep 27at PHI3 − 7L

MIL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Oct 15at LAD6 − 4W
Oct 14at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 12vs LAD7 − 4W
Oct 11vs LAD2 − 1W
Oct 7at SD3 − 1W
Oct 6at SD3 − 4L
Oct 4vs SD4 − 3W
Oct 3vs SD3 − 2W
Sep 27vs STL6 − 4W
Sep 26vs STL3 − 2W