bayesRatings

Brewers at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIL 4 – TB 1
← MLB / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL010012000482
TB000000001140
Team box
MIL·TB
8
hits
4
0
home runs
0
1
walks
1
10
strikeouts
6
135
pitches thrown
120
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cooper PrattMIL2-3102
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4001
William ContrerasMIL1-4101
Brice TurangMIL2-4100
David HamiltonMIL1-4001
Garrett MitchellMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL5.22012
Drew Rasmussen (L)TB4.02104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
MIL +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · MIL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, TB 42% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
MIL by 1.0
Expected score
MIL 3.8 – 2.8 TB
Expected total
6.7
BrewersThe matchupRays
−139Our fair odds+139
3.8Expected runs2.8
+0.53Power rating+0.21
5.1Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.0
8.8Hits / game8.7
0.95Home runs / game1.04
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
103−59 · 10−2 postSeason record98−64 · 8−5 post
8−2Last 105−5
—OutShane McClanahan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · TB chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket US58.7%45.2%
ProphetX57.8%44.8%
Novig57.0%44.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:58 PM CT
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13958%−14258.7%−14258.7%−13757.8%−13357.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays+13942%+11945.7%+12145.2%+12344.8%+12744.0%
SpreadMIL by 1.0
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1our margin−1.5 +12943.7%−1.5 +12444.7%−1.5 +13342.8%−1.5 +13842.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays+1our margin+1.5 −15460.7%+1.5 −14559.2%+1.5 −14759.5%+1.5 −14158.5%
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our totalo6.5 +10548.7%o6.5 +10349.2%o6.5 +10748.2%o6.5 +11147.5%
Under6.7our totalu6.5 −12655.7%u6.5 −12154.7%u6.5 −11954.4%u6.5 −11553.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.0 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 19%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byTB wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more44%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run34%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 runs: 4%2 runs: 4%3 runs: 12%4 runs: 8%5 runs: 15%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 5%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 2%14 runs: 1%15 runs: 1%16 runs: 1%17 runs: <1%18 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 8.527%
Total from 5 to 845%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·TB
Oct 27 at TB
last game
Oct 27 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 28, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
Milwaukee Brewers
MILAngel Zerpa · left elbow, back about Jul 1, 202760-day IL
MILBrian Fitzpatrick · left elbow, back about Aug 1, 202760-day IL
MILQuinn Priester · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
Tampa Bay Rays
TBShane McClanahan · left forearm, back about Feb 1, 2027Out
TBEdwin Uceta · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBGavin Lux · left shoulder, back about Oct 2860-day IL
TBJacob Melton · right hamstring, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBJonathan Heasley · right elbow, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
MIL·TB
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
5.1
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
103−59 · 10−2 post
season record
98−64 · 8−5 post
55−26
home record
55−26
48−33
away record
43−38
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.7
0.95
home runs / game
1.04
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.44
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

MIL · TB · 211 days
Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Oct 27at TBTB 4 − 3post
Oct 26at TBMIL 10 − 1post
Oct 24at MILMIL 5 − 4post
Oct 23at MILMIL 3 − 2post
Apr 1at MILMIL 8 − 2
Mar 31at MILMIL 6 − 2
Mar 30at MILTB 3 − 2
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Oct 27at TB3 − 4L
Oct 26at TB10 − 1W
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 23vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 15at LAD6 − 4W
Oct 14at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 12vs LAD7 − 4W
Oct 11vs LAD2 − 1W
Oct 7at SD3 − 1W
Oct 6at SD3 − 4L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 27vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 26vs MIL1 − 10L
Oct 24at MIL4 − 5L
Oct 23at MIL2 − 3L
Oct 19vs CLE7 − 3W
Oct 18at CLE3 − 1W
Oct 17at CLE7 − 3W
Oct 15at CLE2 − 3L
Oct 13vs CLE3 − 1W
Oct 12vs CLE3 − 7L