bayesRatings

Brewers at Rays

MLB · Monday, Oct 26 · 7:00 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIL 10 – TB 1
← MLB / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL00208000010160
TB000000001131
Team box
MIL·TB
16
hits
3
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
5
119
pitches thrown
175
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-5102
Jackson ChourioMIL4-5201
William ContrerasMIL3-5101
Christian YelichMIL2-3101
Cooper PrattMIL1-5102
Yandy DiazTB2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert Gasser (W)MIL6.01013
Freddy Peralta (L)TB4.27534

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
MIL +10
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · MIL 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 51%, TB 49% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 3.9 – 3.6 TB
Expected total
7.4
BrewersThe matchupRays
−104Our fair odds+104
3.9Expected runs3.6
+0.52Power rating+0.22
5.1Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.0
8.8Hits / game8.7
0.95Home runs / game1.04
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
103−59 · 9−1 postSeason record98−64 · 7−4 post
9−1Last 106−4
—OutShane McClanahan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · TB chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket US49.7%54.2%
ProphetX49.3%53.1%
Novig48.5%52.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:57 PM CT
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−10451%−10350.7%+10149.7%+10349.3%+10648.5%
TBTampa Bay Rays+10449%−12154.7%−11854.2%−11353.1%−10852.0%
Spreadabout even
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.3our margin−1.5 +17336.6%−1.5 +17336.6%−1.5 +17836.0%−1.5 +18635.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.3our margin+1.5 −20867.6%+1.5 −20467.1%+1.5 −19866.4%+1.5 −19065.5%
Totalwe expect 7.4
Over7.4our totalo6.5 −14258.7%o6.5 −14258.7%o6.5 −13757.8%o6.5 −13357.0%
Under7.4our totalu6.5 +11945.7%u6.5 +12145.2%u6.5 +12245.0%u6.5 +13043.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 18%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byTB wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more37%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more26%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.4 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 7.543%
Total over 9.525%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·TB
Oct 24 vs TB
last game
Oct 24 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 26, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
Milwaukee Brewers
MILAngel Zerpa · left elbow, back about Jul 1, 202760-day IL
MILBrian Fitzpatrick · left elbow, back about Aug 1, 202760-day IL
MILQuinn Priester · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
Tampa Bay Rays
TBShane McClanahan · left forearm, back about Feb 1, 2027Out
TBEdwin Uceta · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBGavin Lux · left shoulder60-day IL
TBJacob Melton · right hamstring, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBJonathan Heasley · right elbow, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
MIL·TB
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
5.1
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
103−59 · 9−1 post
season record
98−64 · 7−4 post
55−26
home record
55−26
48−33
away record
43−38
W7
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.7
0.95
home runs / game
1.04
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.44
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

MIL · TB · 209 days
Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Oct 24at MILMIL 5 − 4post
Oct 23at MILMIL 3 − 2post
Apr 1at MILMIL 8 − 2
Mar 31at MILMIL 6 − 2
Mar 30at MILTB 3 − 2
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at MILMIL 8 − 2

MIL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 23vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 15at LAD6 − 4W
Oct 14at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 12vs LAD7 − 4W
Oct 11vs LAD2 − 1W
Oct 7at SD3 − 1W
Oct 6at SD3 − 4L
Oct 4vs SD4 − 3W
Oct 3vs SD3 − 2W

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 24at MIL4 − 5L
Oct 23at MIL2 − 3L
Oct 19vs CLE7 − 3W
Oct 18at CLE3 − 1W
Oct 17at CLE7 − 3W
Oct 15at CLE2 − 3L
Oct 13vs CLE3 − 1W
Oct 12vs CLE3 − 7L
Oct 7at NYY4 − 3W
Oct 5vs NYY5 − 2W