bayesRatings

Brewers at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIL 3 – TB 4
← MLB / Oct 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
MIL000110000001382
TB010100000002491
Team box
MIL·TB
8
hits
9
2
home runs
0
4
walks
1
11
strikeouts
10
162
pitches thrown
205
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cooper PrattMIL4-5112
Chandler SimpsonTB3-5001
David HamiltonMIL1-3111
Jackson ChourioMIL2-6000
Ben WilliamsonTB1-1001
Liam HicksTB2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dustin MayMIL3.03203
Shane Drohan (L)MIL0.04100
Griffin JaxTB4.04226
Ian Seymour (W)TB1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
MIL +3
123456789101112
largest lead: TB 1 · MIL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, TB 46% · Updated Oct 27

Expected margin
MIL by 0.5
Expected score
MIL 4.1 – 3.5 TB
Expected total
7.6
BrewersThe matchupRays
−115Our fair odds+115
4.1Expected runs3.5
+0.54Power rating+0.20
5.1Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.0
8.8Hits / game8.7
0.95Home runs / game1.04
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
103−59 · 10−1 postSeason record98−64 · 7−5 post
9−1Last 105−5
—OutShane McClanahan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · TB chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket US54.7%49.2%
ProphetX53.6%48.9%
Novig52.5%48.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:00 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11554%−12154.7%−12154.7%−11553.6%−11152.5%
TBTampa Bay Rays+11546%+10149.7%+10349.2%+10548.9%+10848.0%
SpreadMIL by 0.5
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.5our margin−1.5 +14041.7%−1.5 +14640.7%−1.5 +14640.6%−1.5 +15639.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin+1.5 −16862.7%+1.5 −17163.1%+1.5 −16562.3%+1.5 −16061.5%
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our totalo7.5 +10149.7%o7.5 +10349.2%o7.5 +10648.4%o7.5 +11147.5%
Under7.6our totalu7.5 −12154.7%u7.5 −12154.7%u7.5 −11854.2%u7.5 −11553.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.5 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 17%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byTB wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more40%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 8.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·TB
Oct 26 at TB
last game
Oct 26 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 27, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
Milwaukee Brewers
MILAngel Zerpa · left elbow, back about Jul 1, 202760-day IL
MILBrian Fitzpatrick · left elbow, back about Aug 1, 202760-day IL
MILQuinn Priester · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
Tampa Bay Rays
TBShane McClanahan · left forearm, back about Feb 1, 2027Out
TBEdwin Uceta · right shoulder, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBGavin Lux · left shoulder60-day IL
TBJacob Melton · right hamstring, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL
TBJonathan Heasley · right elbow, back about Feb 1, 202760-day IL

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
MIL·TB
+0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
5.1
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.0
103−59 · 10−1 post
season record
98−64 · 7−5 post
55−26
home record
55−26
48−33
away record
43−38
W8
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.7
0.95
home runs / game
1.04
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.44
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

MIL · TB · 210 days
Milwaukee BrewersTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 3−7
Oct 26at TBMIL 10 − 1post
Oct 24at MILMIL 5 − 4post
Oct 23at MILMIL 3 − 2post
Apr 1at MILMIL 8 − 2
Mar 31at MILMIL 6 − 2
Mar 30at MILTB 3 − 2
May 11, 2025at TBMIL 4 − 2
May 10, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 1, 2024at MILMIL 7 − 1

MIL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Oct 26at TB10 − 1W
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 23vs TB3 − 2W
Oct 15at LAD6 − 4W
Oct 14at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 12vs LAD7 − 4W
Oct 11vs LAD2 − 1W
Oct 7at SD3 − 1W
Oct 6at SD3 − 4L
Oct 4vs SD4 − 3W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Oct 26vs MIL1 − 10L
Oct 24at MIL4 − 5L
Oct 23at MIL2 − 3L
Oct 19vs CLE7 − 3W
Oct 18at CLE3 − 1W
Oct 17at CLE7 − 3W
Oct 15at CLE2 − 3L
Oct 13vs CLE3 − 1W
Oct 12vs CLE3 − 7L
Oct 7at NYY4 − 3W