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Bucks at Timberwolves

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
MIN by 10.4
Expected score
MIN 120.2 – 109.7 MIL
Expected total
229.9
BucksThe matchupTimberwolves
+317Our fair odds−317
109.7Expected points120.2
−0.86Power rating+0.46
113.4Points / game120.4
124.2Allowed / game107.8
45.0FG%47.6
33.83P%38.6
49.6Rebounds / game51.6
1−4Season record3−2
3−7Last 104−6
—OutAnthony Edwards G · Donte DiVincenzo G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair24.0%76.0%
Kalshi28.4%78.2%
Polymarket US28.4%79.2%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:27 AM CTPolymarket US4:27 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+31724%+25228.4%+25228.4%——
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−31776%−36078.2%−38179.2%——
SpreadMIN by 10.4
MILMilwaukee Bucks+10.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−10.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.9
Over229.9our total————
Under229.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 10.4 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 52 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 51 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%
← MIL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more67%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more52%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.9 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.570%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.531%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Milwaukee Bucks
GTyler Herrolast game
GRyan Rollinslast game
FKyle Kuzmalast game
FJaime Jaquez Jr.last game
CMyles Turnerlast game
Minnesota Timberwolves
GAyo Dosunmulast game
GLaMelo Balllast game
FJaden McDanielslast game
FJonathan Kumingalast game
CRudy Gobertlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIN
Oct 28 vs HOU
last game
Oct 30 vs LAC
4 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
MINAnthony Edwards G · right knee surgery, back about Dec 21Out
MINDonte DiVincenzo G · right achilles surgery, back about Apr 2, 2027Out

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIL·MIN
−0.86
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
113.4
points / game
120.4
124.2
points allowed / game
107.8
1−4
season record
3−2
1−2
home record
1−1
0−2
away record
2−1
L1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
45.0
FG%
47.6
33.8
3P%
38.6
49.6
rebounds / game
51.6
24.6
assists / game
27.0
17.4
turnovers / game
17.0
49.6
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

MIL · MIN · 10 days
Milwaukee BucksMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Jan 13at MILMIN 139 − 106
Dec 21, 2025at MINMIN 103 − 100
Apr 8, 2025at MILMIL 110 − 103
Feb 12, 2025at MINMIL 103 − 101
Feb 23, 2024at MINMIL 112 − 107
Feb 8, 2024at MILMIN 129 − 105
Dec 30, 2022at MILMIL 123 − 114
Nov 4, 2022at MINMIL 115 − 102
Mar 19, 2022at MINMIN 138 − 119
Oct 27, 2021at MILMIN 113 − 108

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 28vs HOU100 − 132L
Oct 26vs IND110 − 102W
Oct 24at PHI116 − 127L
Oct 23vs CHI125 − 132L
Oct 21at WSH116 − 128L
Apr 12at PHI106 − 126L
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 28vs GS114 − 119L
Oct 26at CLE125 − 127L
Oct 25vs TOR117 − 94W
Oct 23at ORL115 − 93W
Oct 21at MIA131 − 106W
May 15vs SA109 − 139L
May 12at SA97 − 126L
May 10vs SA114 − 109W
May 8vs SA108 − 115L
May 6at SA95 − 133L