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Pacers at Bucks

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final IND 102 – MIL 110
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND29322417102
MIL31193426110
Team box
IND·MIL
39-96
field goals
41-95
13-48
3-pointers
13-44
11-18
free throws
15-21
48
rebounds
61
27
assists
27
13
turnovers
13
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyler HerroMIL3223107
Tyrese HaliburtonIND352269
Pascal SiakamIND3720136
Ryan RollinsMIL321924
Kyle KuzmaMIL291773
Kel'el WareMIL1916140

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +11
IND +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 9 · IND 11lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 53%, MIL 47% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
IND by 1.3
Expected score
IND 119.6 – 118.3 MIL
Expected total
237.9
PacersThe matchupBucks
−111Our fair odds+111
119.6Expected points118.3
−0.74Power rating−0.86
121.3Points / game119.0
116.7Allowed / game129.0
51.3FG%47.3
33.73P%36.7
41.7Rebounds / game49.0
2−1Season record0−3
4−6Last 102−8
Andrew Nembhard · Ben Sheppard
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
T.J. McConnellOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · MIL chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket US61.7%42.7%
ProphetX59.5%42.8%
Novig58.5%42.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:57 PM CT
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−11153%−15460.7%−16161.7%−14759.5%−14158.5%
MILMilwaukee Bucks+11147%+12943.7%+13442.7%+13342.8%+13842.0%
SpreadIND by 1.3
INDIndiana Pacers−1.3our margin−3.5 −10751.8%−3.5 −11252.7%−3.5 −10250.5%−3.5 +10249.5%
MILMilwaukee Bucks+1.3our margin+3.5 −11252.7%+3.5 −10751.7%+3.5 −10751.7%+3.5 −10651.5%
Totalwe expect 237.9
Over237.9our totalo238.5 −12154.7%o238.5 −11653.7%o238.5 −11653.8%o238.5 −11353.0%
Under237.9our totalu238.5 +10149.7%u238.5 −10350.7%u238.5 +10548.9%u238.5 +10848.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.3 expected
Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%
← IND wins byMIL wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more43%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more30%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.9 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.569%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24737%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GTyrese Haliburtonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GTyler Herrostarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FJaime Jaquez Jr.started
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·MIL
Oct 25 at BKN
last game
Oct 24 at PHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 7:00 PM ET
INDAndrew Nembhard · neck stiffness / sorenessOut
INDBen Sheppard · left meniscus tearOut
INDIvica Zubac · left ankle sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl repair / surgeryOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
IND·MIL
−0.74
rating (0 = average)
−0.86
121.3
points / game
119.0
116.7
points allowed / game
129.0
2−1
season record
0−3
0−1
home record
0−1
2−0
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
2−8
51.3
FG%
47.3
33.7
3P%
36.7
41.7
rebounds / game
49.0
30.0
assists / game
25.7
16.3
turnovers / game
19.0
60.0
points in paint / game
50.7

Rating Trend

IND · MIL · 6 days
Indiana PacersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 6−4
Mar 15at MILMIL 134 − 123
Feb 6at MILMIL 105 − 99
Dec 23, 2025at INDMIL 111 − 94
Nov 3, 2025at INDMIL 117 − 115
Apr 29, 2025at INDIND 119 − 118post
Apr 27, 2025at MILIND 129 − 103post
Apr 25, 2025at MILMIL 117 − 101post
Apr 22, 2025at INDIND 123 − 115post
Apr 19, 2025at INDIND 117 − 98post
Mar 15, 2025at MILMIL 126 − 119

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 25at BKN136 − 109W
Oct 23vs DAL105 − 121L
Oct 21at NO123 − 120W
Apr 12vs DET121 − 133L
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Oct 24at PHI116 − 127L
Oct 23vs CHI125 − 132L
Oct 21at WSH116 − 128L
Apr 12at PHI106 − 126L
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W
Apr 3vs BOS101 − 133L
Apr 1at HOU113 − 119L