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Rockets at Bucks

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final HOU 132 – MIL 100
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU23343837132
MIL21143431100
Team box
HOU·MIL
46-84
field goals
37-92
17-38
3-pointers
12-41
23-26
free throws
14-18
44
rebounds
40
27
assists
19
15
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Fred VanVleetHOU292465
Amen ThompsonHOU332343
Tyler HerroMIL272330
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL271942
Kevin DurantHOU311854
Bogdan BogdanovicHOU151624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +35
HOU +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 3 · HOU 35lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 71%, MIL 29% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
HOU by 8.2
Expected score
HOU 117.1 – 109.0 MIL
Expected total
226.1
RocketsThe matchupBucks
−249Our fair odds+249
117.1Expected points109.0
+0.68Power rating−0.80
120.8Points / game116.8
111.0Allowed / game122.2
50.8FG%46.2
38.53P%35.0
45.2Rebounds / game52.0
4−0Season record1−3
6−4Last 103−7
Alperen Sengun · Julian Phillips
Marcus Smart · Quadir Copeland
Steven AdamsOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIL chance
Our model fair71.4%28.6%
Kalshi77.3%26.3%
Polymarket US77.3%26.3%
ProphetX75.8%26.5%
Novig75.5%25.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:58 PM CT
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−24971%−34077.3%−34077.3%−31375.8%−30875.5%
MILMilwaukee Bucks+24929%+28026.3%+28026.3%+27726.5%+30025.0%
SpreadHOU by 8.2
HOUHouston Rockets−8.2our margin−8.5 −10751.8%−8.5 −10751.7%−8.5 −10050.0%−8.5 +10249.5%
MILMilwaukee Bucks+8.2our margin+8.5 −11252.7%+8.5 −11252.7%+8.5 −10952.2%+8.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 226.1
Over226.1our totalo226.5 −11252.7%o226.5 −11252.7%o226.5 −11152.7%o226.5 −10651.5%
Under226.1our totalu226.5 −10751.8%u226.5 −10751.7%u226.5 −10150.3%u226.5 +10449.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.2 expected
Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%
← HOU wins byMIL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more63%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more47%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.1 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.568%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GFred VanVleetstarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GTyler Herrostarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FJaime Jaquez Jr.started
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIL
Oct 26 vs ATL
last game
Oct 26 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 1:30 PM ET
HOUAlperen Sengun · low back sorenessOut
HOUJulian Phillips · g league - two-wayOut
HOUMarcus Smart · left forearm strainOut
HOUQuadir Copeland · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right soleus strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
HOU·MIL
+0.68
rating (0 = average)
−0.80
120.8
points / game
116.8
111.0
points allowed / game
122.2
4−0
season record
1−3
2−0
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
0−2
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
50.8
FG%
46.2
38.5
3P%
35.0
45.2
rebounds / game
52.0
28.8
assists / game
26.0
17.2
turnovers / game
17.5
51.5
points in paint / game
50.5

Rating Trend

HOU · MIL · 8 days
Houston RocketsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Apr 1at HOUHOU 119 − 113
Nov 9, 2025at MILHOU 122 − 115
Feb 25, 2025at HOUHOU 100 − 97
Nov 18, 2024at MILMIL 101 − 100
Jan 6, 2024at HOUHOU 112 − 108
Dec 17, 2023at MILMIL 128 − 119
Dec 11, 2022at HOUHOU 97 − 92
Oct 22, 2022at MILMIL 125 − 105
Dec 22, 2021at MILMIL 126 − 106
Dec 10, 2021at HOUMIL 123 − 114

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Oct 26vs ATL120 − 110W
Oct 24at ATL121 − 114W
Oct 23at SA114 − 110W
Oct 21vs DAL128 − 110W
May 1vs LAL78 − 98L
Apr 29at LAL99 − 93W
Apr 26vs LAL115 − 96W
Apr 24vs LAL108 − 112L
Apr 21at LAL94 − 101L
Apr 18at LAL98 − 107L

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 26vs IND110 − 102W
Oct 24at PHI116 − 127L
Oct 23vs CHI125 − 132L
Oct 21at WSH116 − 128L
Apr 12at PHI106 − 126L
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W
Apr 3vs BOS101 − 133L