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Jazz at Pelicans

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
NO by 6.8
Expected score
NO 127.4 – 120.5 UTAH
Expected total
247.9
JazzThe matchupPelicans
+182Our fair odds−182
120.5Expected points127.4
−1.00Power rating−0.60
112.4Points / game119.4
120.2Allowed / game121.6
45.2FG%49.2
33.43P%30.0
46.8Rebounds / game43.0
1−4Season record1−4
2−8Last 102−8
Blake Hinson F · Jaren Jackson Jr. F
Jusuf Nurkic C · Trey Alexander GOutYves Missi C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · NO chance
Our model fair35.5%64.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+18236%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−18264%————
SpreadNO by 6.8
UTAHUtah Jazz+6.8our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans−6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 247.9
Over247.9our total————
Under247.9our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Pelicans by 6.8 expected
Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 3%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 5 or more58%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 10 or more43%
New Orleans Pelicans wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

247.9 expected
195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: <1%211 points: <1%212 points: <1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 2%260 points: 2%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: 1%280 points: 1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%310 points: <1%311 points: <1%312 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 237.567%
Total over 247.549%
Total over 257.532%
Total from 238 to 25735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Utah Jazz
GJosh Greenlast game
GKeyonte Georgelast game
GAce Baileylast game
GDarryn Petersonlast game
CJaxson Hayeslast game
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearslast game
FHerbert Joneslast game
FZion Williamsonlast game
FTrey Murphy IIIlast game
FKarlo Matkoviclast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·NO
Oct 28 vs SA
last game
Oct 29 vs SAC
6 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Utah Jazz
UTAHBlake Hinson F · left hamstring strainOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. F · right knee, back about Dec 14Out
UTAHJusuf Nurkic C · right foot, back about Nov 4Out
UTAHTrey Alexander G · left knee bruiseOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen F · right wristDay-to-day
New Orleans Pelicans
NOYves Missi C · left knee bruiseOut
NODejounte Murray G · personalDay-to-day
NOJordan Poole G · left ankleDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
UTAH·NO
−1.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.60
112.4
points / game
119.4
120.2
points allowed / game
121.6
1−4
season record
1−4
1−3
home record
1−2
0−1
away record
0−2
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
2−8
45.2
FG%
49.2
33.4
3P%
30.0
46.8
rebounds / game
43.0
26.8
assists / game
25.2
17.2
turnovers / game
17.4
47.6
points in paint / game
62.0

Rating Trend

UTAH · NO · 10 days
Utah JazzNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 8−2
Oct 23at UTAHUTAH 120 − 119
Apr 7at NONO 156 − 137
Feb 28at UTAHNO 115 − 105
Feb 26at UTAHNO 129 − 118
Mar 2, 2025at UTAHNO 128 − 121
Jan 20, 2025at NONO 123 − 119
Jan 17, 2025at NONO 136 − 123
Jan 23, 2024at NONO 153 − 124
Dec 28, 2023at NONO 112 − 105
Nov 27, 2023at UTAHUTAH 114 − 112

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 28vs SA111 − 117L
Oct 26vs MEM105 − 110L
Oct 25vs LAL123 − 132L
Oct 23vs NO120 − 119W
Oct 21at MEM103 − 123L
Apr 12at LAL107 − 131L
Apr 10vs MEM147 − 101W
Apr 7at NO137 − 156L
Apr 5at OKC111 − 146L
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 29vs SAC132 − 120W
Oct 28vs DEN91 − 104L
Oct 24at DEN135 − 141L
Oct 23at UTAH119 − 120L
Oct 21vs IND120 − 123L
Apr 12at MIN126 − 132L
Apr 10at BOS118 − 144L
Apr 7vs UTAH156 − 137W
Apr 5vs ORL108 − 112L
Apr 3at SAC113 − 117L