bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Jazz

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final MEM 110 – UTAH 105
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM30283121110
UTAH21312429105
Team box
MEM·UTAH
37-85
field goals
38-92
16-37
3-pointers
10-33
20-22
free throws
19-25
42
rebounds
49
26
assists
25
13
turnovers
14
34
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH332636
Ace BaileyUTAH3417103
Cedric CowardMEM3116113
Ty JeromeMEM301518
Darryn PetersonUTAH261474
Mo BambaUTAH291471

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +16
MEM +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 4 · MEM 16lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 53%, UTAH 47% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
MEM by 1.3
Expected score
MEM 121.0 – 119.8 UTAH
Expected total
240.8
GrizzliesThe matchupJazz
−112Our fair odds+112
121.0Expected points119.8
−0.57Power rating−1.01
119.0Points / game115.3
107.7Allowed / game124.7
46.0FG%47.7
38.03P%33.0
52.0Rebounds / game44.0
3−0Season record1−2
3−7Last 102−8
Carson Cooper · Jahmai Mashack
Javon SmallOutHarrison Ingram · Jaxson Hayes
Jusuf Nurkic · Kobe Bufkin
Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi54.7%48.7%
Polymarket US54.7%49.7%
ProphetX54.0%48.2%
Novig53.5%47.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:58 PM CT
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−11253%−12154.7%−12154.7%−11754.0%−11553.5%
UTAHUtah Jazz+11247%+10548.7%+10149.7%+10748.2%+11347.0%
SpreadMEM by 1.3
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−1.3our margin−1.5 −11252.7%−1.5 −10751.7%−1.5 −10451.0%−1.5 −10250.5%
UTAHUtah Jazz+1.3our margin+1.5 −11252.7%+1.5 −11252.7%+1.5 −10751.7%+1.5 −10250.5%
Totalwe expect 240.8
Over240.8our totalo236.5 −11252.7%o236.5 −11653.7%o236.5 −10852.0%o236.5 −10651.5%
Under240.8our totalu236.5 −10751.8%u236.5 −10350.7%u236.5 −10350.8%u236.5 +10249.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 1.3 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 3%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%
← MEM wins byUTAH wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more43%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more29%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.8 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.549%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FCameron Boozerstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CZach Edeystarted
Utah Jazz
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
GDarryn Petersonstarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·UTAH
Oct 25 at SAC
last game
Oct 25 vs LAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 8:30 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMCarson Cooper · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJaxson Hayes · right shoulder sorenessOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · right foot 2nd plantar plate tearOut
UTAHKobe Bufkin · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
MEM·UTAH
−0.57
rating (0 = average)
−1.01
119.0
points / game
115.3
107.7
points allowed / game
124.7
3−0
season record
1−2
1−0
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
0−1
W3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
2−8
46.0
FG%
47.7
38.0
3P%
33.0
52.0
rebounds / game
44.0
24.7
assists / game
28.3
18.3
turnovers / game
17.7
48.7
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

MEM · UTAH · 6 days
Memphis GrizzliesUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 2−8
Oct 21at MEMMEM 123 − 103
Apr 10at UTAHUTAH 147 − 101
Feb 20at MEMMEM 123 − 114
Dec 23, 2025at UTAHMEM 137 − 128
Dec 12, 2025at MEMUTAH 130 − 126
Mar 25, 2025at UTAHMEM 140 − 103
Mar 12, 2025at MEMMEM 122 − 115
Jan 25, 2025at MEMMEM 125 − 103
Oct 23, 2024at UTAHMEM 126 − 124
Nov 29, 2023at MEMMEM 105 − 91

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Oct 25at SAC123 − 112W
Oct 23at GS111 − 108W
Oct 21vs UTAH123 − 103W
Apr 12at HOU101 − 132L
Apr 10at UTAH101 − 147L
Apr 8at DEN119 − 136L
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L
Apr 3vs TOR96 − 128L
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 25vs LAL123 − 132L
Oct 23vs NO120 − 119W
Oct 21at MEM103 − 123L
Apr 12at LAL107 − 131L
Apr 10vs MEM147 − 101W
Apr 7at NO137 − 156L
Apr 5at OKC111 − 146L
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L
Apr 1vs DEN117 − 130L
Mar 30vs CLE113 − 122L