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Spurs at Jazz

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final SA 117 – UTAH 111
← NBA / Oct 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
SA2229342012117
UTAH322330206111
Team box
SA·UTAH
44-101
field goals
39-92
12-38
3-pointers
15-39
17-21
free throws
18-19
51
rebounds
53
30
assists
24
11
turnovers
19
54
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3936145
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH373143
Devin VassellSA382152
Ace BaileyUTAH401960
Darryn PetersonUTAH261853
Brice SensabaughUTAH181631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +11
SA +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: UTAH 11 · SA 9lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 85%, UTAH 15% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
SA by 15.0
Expected score
SA 125.0 – 109.9 UTAH
Expected total
234.9
SpursThe matchupJazz
−553Our fair odds+553
125.0Expected points109.9
+1.11Power rating−1.06
116.5Points / game112.8
109.8Allowed / game121.0
46.8FG%46.0
35.23P%32.2
43.5Rebounds / game45.2
2−2Season record1−3
4−6Last 102−8
Jayden Quaintance · Tobias HarrisOutHarrison Ingram · Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jusuf Nurkic · Kobe Bufkin
Lauri Markkanen

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair84.7%15.3%
Kalshi86.8%15.9%
Polymarket US86.8%15.9%
ProphetX86.0%16.4%
Novig85.5%15.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:57 PM CT
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−55385%−66086.8%−66086.8%−61486.0%−59085.5%
UTAHUtah Jazz+55315%+52915.9%+52915.9%+50916.4%+56715.0%
SpreadSA by 15.0
SASan Antonio Spurs−15our margin−13.5 −11252.7%−13.5 −11252.7%−13.5 −10952.2%−13.5 −10451.0%
UTAHUtah Jazz+15our margin+13.5 −10751.8%+13.5 −10751.7%+13.5 −10050.0%+13.5 +10249.5%
Totalwe expect 234.9
Over234.9our totalo232.5 −10350.7%o232.5 −10350.7%o232.5 −10050.0%o232.5 +10249.5%
Under234.9our totalu232.5 −11653.7%u232.5 −11653.7%u232.5 −11152.7%u232.5 −10451.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 15.0 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%
← SA wins byUTAH wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more81%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more66%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more49%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.9 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
GDylan Harperstarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Utah Jazz
GJosh Greenstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
GDarryn Petersonstarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·UTAH
Oct 27 vs SAC
last game
Oct 26 vs MEM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 8:15 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SAJayden Quaintance · right knee surgeryOut
SATobias Harris · left calf strainOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · right knee; mcl tearOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · right foot; 2nd plantar plate tearOut
UTAHKobe Bufkin · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right wrist sprainOut
UTAHTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
SA·UTAH
+1.11
rating (0 = average)
−1.06
116.5
points / game
112.8
109.8
points allowed / game
121.0
2−2
season record
1−3
1−2
home record
1−2
1−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
46.8
FG%
46.0
35.2
3P%
32.2
43.5
rebounds / game
45.2
27.8
assists / game
27.5
13.8
turnovers / game
16.8
55.0
points in paint / game
51.0

Rating Trend

SA · UTAH · 8 days
San Antonio SpursUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 4−6
Jan 22at UTAHSA 126 − 109
Jan 19at SASA 123 − 110
Dec 27, 2025at SAUTAH 127 − 114
Nov 26, 2024at UTAHSA 128 − 115
Nov 21, 2024at SASA 126 − 118
Nov 9, 2024at SAUTAH 111 − 110
Oct 31, 2024at UTAHSA 106 − 88
Mar 27, 2024at UTAHSA 118 − 111
Feb 25, 2024at UTAHUTAH 128 − 109
Dec 26, 2023at SAUTAH 130 − 118

SA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 27vs SAC130 − 103W
Oct 24at DAL122 − 106W
Oct 23vs HOU110 − 114L
Oct 20vs OKC104 − 116L
Jun 13vs NY90 − 94L
Jun 10at NY106 − 107L
Jun 8at NY115 − 111W
Jun 5vs NY104 − 105L
Jun 3vs NY95 − 105L
May 30at OKC111 − 103W

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 26vs MEM105 − 110L
Oct 25vs LAL123 − 132L
Oct 23vs NO120 − 119W
Oct 21at MEM103 − 123L
Apr 12at LAL107 − 131L
Apr 10vs MEM147 − 101W
Apr 7at NO137 − 156L
Apr 5at OKC111 − 146L
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L
Apr 1vs DEN117 − 130L