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Raptors at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 6

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
TOR by 8.6
Expected score
TOR 117.2 – 108.6 MIL
Expected total
225.8
RaptorsThe matchupBucks
−218Our fair odds+218
117.2Expected points108.6
+0.38Power rating−0.86
117.5Points / game113.4
102.5Allowed / game124.2
44.2FG%45.0
30.53P%33.8
45.8Rebounds / game49.6
3−1Season record1−4
6−4Last 103−7
Kawhi Leonard F · Nate Bittle COut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MIL chance
Our model fair68.6%31.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−21869%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+21831%————
SpreadTOR by 8.6
TORToronto Raptors−8.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+8.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.8
Over225.8our total————
Under225.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 8.6 expected
Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMIL wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more64%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more48%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleylast game
GJa'Kobe Walterlast game
FRJ Barrettlast game
FScottie Barneslast game
CJakob Poeltllast game
Milwaukee Bucks
GTyler Herrolast game
GRyan Rollinslast game
FKyle Kuzmalast game
FJaime Jaquez Jr.last game
CMyles Turnerlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MIL
Oct 30 vs ORL
last game
Oct 28 vs HOU
6 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
TORKawhi Leonard F · left knee inflammation, back about Nov 23Out
TORNate Bittle C · right foot fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TOR·MIL
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.86
117.5
points / game
113.4
102.5
points allowed / game
124.2
3−1
season record
1−4
2−0
home record
1−2
1−1
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
44.2
FG%
45.0
30.5
3P%
33.8
45.8
rebounds / game
49.6
27.2
assists / game
24.6
15.0
turnovers / game
17.4
52.0
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

TOR · MIL · 10 days
Toronto RaptorsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 5−5
Feb 22at MILTOR 122 − 94
Dec 18, 2025at MILTOR 111 − 105
Nov 4, 2025at TORTOR 128 − 100
Oct 24, 2025at TORMIL 122 − 116
Jan 17, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 112
Jan 6, 2025at TORMIL 128 − 104
Nov 12, 2024at MILMIL 99 − 85
Apr 5, 2024at MILTOR 117 − 111
Nov 15, 2023at TORMIL 128 − 112
Nov 1, 2023at TORTOR 130 − 111

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 28vs ORL129 − 99W
Oct 25at MIN94 − 117L
Oct 23at WSH112 − 102W
Oct 21vs CHI135 − 92W
May 3at CLE102 − 114L
May 1vs CLE112 − 110W
Apr 29at CLE120 − 125L
Apr 26vs CLE93 − 89W
Apr 23vs CLE126 − 104W
Apr 20at CLE105 − 115L

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 28vs HOU100 − 132L
Oct 26vs IND110 − 102W
Oct 24at PHI116 − 127L
Oct 23vs CHI125 − 132L
Oct 21at WSH116 − 128L
Apr 12at PHI106 − 126L
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W