bayesRatings

Knicks at Cavaliers

NBA · Saturday, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
NY by 2.8
Expected score
NY 113.0 – 110.2 CLE
Expected total
223.2
KnicksThe matchupCavaliers
−118Our fair odds+118
113.0Expected points110.2
+0.84Power rating+0.35
107.0Points / game118.0
107.7Allowed / game117.0
42.0FG%46.4
34.73P%34.8
47.7Rebounds / game46.6
2−4Season record3−2
5−5Last 104−6
Jose Alvarado GOut (1 each)Jaylon Tyson G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · CLE chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−11854%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+11846%————
SpreadNY by 2.8
NYNew York Knicks−2.8our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.2
Over223.2our total————
Under223.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 2.8 expected
New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%
← NY wins byCLE wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more48%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more33%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.2 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartlast game
GMikal Bridgeslast game
GJalen Brunsonlast game
FOG Anunobylast game
CKarl-Anthony Townslast game
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenlast game
GDonovan Mitchelllast game
GPeyton Watsonlast game
CJarrett Allenlast game
CEvan Mobleylast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·CLE
Oct 30 at PHI
last game
Oct 29 at ATL
7 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
New York Knicks
NYJose Alvarado G · left ankle sprainOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEJaylon Tyson G · right ankle sprainOut
CLEMeleek Thomas G · footDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NY·CLE
+0.84
rating (0 = average)
+0.35
107.0
points / game
118.0
107.7
points allowed / game
117.0
2−4
season record
3−2
1−2
home record
3−0
1−2
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
42.0
FG%
46.4
34.7
3P%
34.8
47.7
rebounds / game
46.6
26.2
assists / game
26.2
15.5
turnovers / game
15.6
41.3
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

NY · CLE · 11 days
New York KnicksCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
May 25at CLENY 130 − 93post
May 23at CLENY 121 − 108post
May 21at NYNY 109 − 93post
May 19at NYNY 115 − 104post
Feb 24at CLECLE 109 − 94
Dec 25, 2025at NYNY 126 − 124
Oct 22, 2025at NYNY 119 − 111
Apr 11, 2025at NYCLE 108 − 102
Apr 2, 2025at CLECLE 124 − 105
Feb 21, 2025at CLECLE 142 − 105

NY · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 30at PHI93 − 98L
Oct 28at CHI133 − 127W
Oct 27vs DET111 − 97W
Oct 25vs ORL102 − 111L
Oct 23at BOS103 − 107L
Oct 20vs PHI100 − 106L
Jun 13at SA94 − 90W
Jun 10vs SA107 − 106W
Jun 8vs SA111 − 115L
Jun 5at SA105 − 104W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 29at ATL111 − 114L
Oct 28vs WSH121 − 111W
Oct 26vs MIN127 − 125W
Oct 24vs BKN125 − 121W
Oct 22at PHI106 − 114L
May 25vs NY93 − 130L
May 23vs NY108 − 121L
May 21at NY93 − 109L
May 19at NY104 − 115L
May 17at DET125 − 94W