bayesRatings

Knicks at Bulls

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final NY 133 – CHI 127

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY34223443133
CHI33293431127
Team box
NY·CHI
47-105
field goals
44-91
22-48
3-pointers
18-42
17-20
free throws
21-30
50
rebounds
39
32
assists
32
13
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY353817
Norman PowellCHI373022
OG AnunobyNY312361
Caleb WilsonCHI382064
Karl-Anthony TownsNY2819135
Jordan ClarksonNY171831

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +19
NY +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 19 · NY 11lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 72%, CHI 28% · Updated Oct 28

Expected margin
NY by 9.2
Expected score
NY 120.9 – 111.7 CHI
Expected total
232.6
KnicksThe matchupBulls
−261Our fair odds+261
120.9Expected points111.7
+0.92Power rating−0.83
104.0Points / game110.8
105.2Allowed / game129.5
41.5FG%40.2
32.53P%23.2
47.8Rebounds / game46.2
1−3Season record1−3
6−4Last 103−7
Jose AlvaradoOutNic Claxton · Patrick Williams
Tobe Awaka

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · CHI chance
Our model fair72.3%27.7%
Kalshi73.4%30.4%
Polymarket US73.4%30.4%
ProphetX72.4%30.0%
Novig72.0%28.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:59 PM CT
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−26172%−27673.4%−27673.4%−26272.4%−25772.0%
CHIChicago Bulls+26128%+22930.4%+22930.4%+23330.0%+25128.5%
SpreadNY by 9.2
NYNew York Knicks−9.2our margin−7.5 −10751.8%−7.5 −10751.7%−7.5 −10250.5%−7.5 +10050.0%
CHIChicago Bulls+9.2our margin+7.5 −11653.7%+7.5 −11252.7%+7.5 −10952.2%+7.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our totalo232.5 −11653.7%o232.5 −11653.7%o232.5 −11353.1%o232.5 −10852.0%
Under232.6our totalu232.5 −10350.7%u232.5 −10350.7%u232.5 +10449.1%u232.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 9.2 expected
New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 49 points: <1%
← NY wins byCHI wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more66%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more50%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
Chicago Bulls
GJosh Giddeystarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FCaleb Wilsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·CHI
Oct 27 vs DET
last game
Oct 26 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYJose Alvarado · left ankle sprainOut
Chicago Bulls
CHINic Claxton · left hamstring strainOut
CHIPatrick Williams · right adductor strainOut
CHITobe Awaka · left ankle sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
NY·CHI
+0.92
rating (0 = average)
−0.83
104.0
points / game
110.8
105.2
points allowed / game
129.5
1−3
season record
1−3
1−2
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
41.5
FG%
40.2
32.5
3P%
23.2
47.8
rebounds / game
46.2
25.5
assists / game
22.5
16.8
turnovers / game
19.5
42.5
points in paint / game
46.5

Rating Trend

NY · CHI · 8 days
New York KnicksChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 4−6
Apr 3at NYNY 136 − 96
Feb 22at CHINY 105 − 99
Nov 2, 2025at NYNY 128 − 116
Oct 31, 2025at CHICHI 135 − 125
Feb 20, 2025at NYNY 113 − 111
Jan 4, 2025at CHICHI 139 − 126
Nov 13, 2024at NYCHI 124 − 123
Apr 14, 2024at NYNY 120 − 119
Apr 9, 2024at CHINY 128 − 117
Apr 5, 2024at CHICHI 108 − 100

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 27vs DET111 − 97W
Oct 25vs ORL102 − 111L
Oct 23at BOS103 − 107L
Oct 20vs PHI100 − 106L
Jun 13at SA94 − 90W
Jun 10vs SA107 − 106W
Jun 8vs SA111 − 115L
Jun 5at SA105 − 104W
Jun 3at SA105 − 95W
May 25at CLE130 − 93W

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 26at BOS99 − 134L
Oct 24vs WSH120 − 124L
Oct 23at MIL132 − 125W
Oct 21at TOR92 − 135L
Apr 12at DAL128 − 149L
Apr 10vs ORL103 − 127L
Apr 9at WSH119 − 108W
Apr 7at WSH129 − 98W
Apr 5vs PHX110 − 120L
Apr 3at NY96 − 136L