bayesRatings

Ravens at Dolphins

NFL · Thursday, Oct 30 · 7:15 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final BAL 28 – MIA 6
← NFL / Oct 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL7714028
MIA33006
Team box
BAL·MIA
338
total yards
332
188
passing yards
245
150
rushing yards
87
18
first downs
17
5-13
third downs
2-12
0
turnovers
3
31:43
time of possession
28:17
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Lamar JacksonBAL18/2320440
Tua TagovailoaMIA25/4026101
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL191190
De'Von AchaneMIA14670
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL5640
Jaylen WaddleMIA6820

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +22
BAL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 3 · BAL 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 54%, MIA 46% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 1.5
Expected score
BAL 26.3 – 24.8 MIA
Expected total
51.1
RavensThe matchupDolphins
−118Our fair odds+118
26.3Expected points24.8
+0.18Power rating−0.36
24.9Points / game21.8
30.0Allowed / game26.9
316Total yards / game286
5.9Yards / play5.2
182Passing yards / game188
2−5Season record2−6
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens−11854%————
MIAMiami Dolphins+11846%————
SpreadBAL by 1.5
BALBaltimore Ravens−1.5our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.1
Over51.1our total————
Under51.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 1.5 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 5%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 9%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%
← BAL wins byMIA wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more51%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more32%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.1 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.565%
Total over 51.546%
Total over 58.530%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 71% completions, 220 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 65% completions, 170 yds/game, 5 TD, 6 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·MIA
Oct 26, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Oct 26, 2025 at ATL
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
BAL·MIA
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
24.9
points / game
21.8
30.0
points allowed / game
26.9
2−5
season record
2−6
2−3
home record
1−2
0−2
away record
1−4
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
316
total yards / game
286
5.9
yards / play
5.2
182
passing yards / game
188
133
rushing yards / game
98
18.1
first downs / game
17.0
1.4
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

BAL · MIA · 22 days
Baltimore RavensMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · MIA 2−1
Dec 31, 2023at BALBAL 56 − 19
Sep 18, 2022at BALMIA 42 − 38
Nov 11, 2021at MIAMIA 22 − 10

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W