bayesRatings

Falcons at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final ATL 23 – NE 24
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL770923
NE7143024
Team box
ATL·NE
288
total yards
331
217
passing yards
221
71
rushing yards
110
17
first downs
23
1-10
third downs
8-12
0
turnovers
2
25:55
time of possession
34:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL22/3722130
Drake MayeNE19/2925921
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL12460
TreVeyon HendersonNE14550
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Drake LondonATL91183
DeMario DouglasNE41001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +14
ATL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 14 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 35%, NE 65% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 7.4
Expected score
NE 23.6 – 16.2 ATL
Expected total
39.9
FalconsThe matchupPatriots
+183Our fair odds−183
16.2Expected points23.6
−0.32Power rating−0.04
17.1Points / game26.6
22.0Allowed / game18.2
343Total yards / game353
5.4Yards / play5.9
219Passing yards / game240
3−4Season record6−2
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NE chance
Our model fair35.3%64.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+18335%————
NENew England Patriots−18365%————
SpreadNE by 7.4
ATLAtlanta Falcons+7.4our margin————
NENew England Patriots−7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.9
Over39.9our total————
Under39.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 7.4 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 6%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more64%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more48%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.9 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.550%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 64% completions, 268 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 78% completions, 255 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NE
Oct 26, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs CLE
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
ATL·NE
−0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
17.1
points / game
26.6
22.0
points allowed / game
18.2
3−4
season record
6−2
2−2
home record
2−2
1−2
away record
4−0
L2
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
343
total yards / game
353
5.4
yards / play
5.9
219
passing yards / game
240
123
rushing yards / game
113
19.3
first downs / game
20.4
1.0
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

ATL · NE · 23 days
Atlanta FalconsNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NE 1−0
Nov 18, 2021at ATLNE 25 − 0

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W

NE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L