bayesRatings

Bears at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final CHI 47 – CIN 42
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI710141647
CIN101071542
Team box
CHI·CIN
576
total yards
495
293
passing yards
449
283
rushing yards
46
30
first downs
26
8-15
third downs
5-10
0
turnovers
3
34:30
time of possession
25:30
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI20/3428030
Joe FlaccoCIN31/4747042
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyle MonangaiCHI261760
Chase BrownCIN11370
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Colston LovelandCHI61182
Tee HigginsCIN71212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +14
CHI +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 7 · CHI 14lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 45%, CIN 55% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
CIN by 1.7
Expected score
CIN 27.5 – 25.8 CHI
Expected total
53.3
BearsThe matchupBengals
+120Our fair odds−120
25.8Expected points27.5
−0.14Power rating−0.31
24.0Points / game21.8
26.4Allowed / game31.6
351Total yards / game285
5.7Yards / play4.8
226Passing yards / game202
4−3Season record3−5
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+12045%————
CINCincinnati Bengals−12055%————
SpreadCIN by 1.7
CHIChicago Bears+1.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.3
Over53.3our total————
Under53.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 1.7 expected
Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 8%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%
← CHI wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more48%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more32%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.3 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.565%
Total over 53.547%
Total over 60.531%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 61% completions, 236 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
CINJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 64% completions, 261 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·CIN
Oct 26, 2025 at BAL
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
CHI·CIN
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
24.0
points / game
21.8
26.4
points allowed / game
31.6
4−3
season record
3−5
2−1
home record
2−2
2−2
away record
1−3
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
351
total yards / game
285
5.7
yards / play
4.8
226
passing yards / game
202
125
rushing yards / game
83
19.3
first downs / game
18.5
0.9
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

CHI · CIN · 23 days
Chicago BearsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CIN 0−1
Sep 19, 2021at CHICHI 20 − 17

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W