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Broncos at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final DEN 18 – HOU 15
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN0701118
HOU393015
Team box
DEN·HOU
271
total yards
268
171
passing yards
191
100
rushing yards
77
15
first downs
15
6-15
third downs
3-17
2
turnovers
0
25:24
time of possession
34:36
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN18/3717321
Davis MillsHOU17/3013700
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN15610
Nick ChubbHOU11340
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
RJ HarveyDEN5511
Dalton SchultzHOU6770

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +8
DEN +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 8 · DEN 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 0.7
Expected score
HOU 19.3 – 18.6 DEN
Expected total
37.9
BroncosThe matchupTexans
+117Our fair odds−117
18.6Expected points19.3
+0.47Power rating+0.27
25.9Points / game21.9
18.9Allowed / game14.7
357Total yards / game329
5.6Yards / play5.2
219Passing yards / game215
6−2Season record3−4
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos+11746%————
HOUHouston Texans−11754%————
SpreadHOU by 0.7
DENDenver Broncos+0.7our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.9
Over37.9our total————
Under37.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 0.7 expected
Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 7%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: <1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%
← DEN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more45%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more29%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.9 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.570%
Total over 37.549%
Total over 44.529%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 60% completions, 233 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
HOUDavis Mills · last 3 games: 56% completions, 52 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·HOU
Oct 26, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs SF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
DEN·HOU
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
25.9
points / game
21.9
18.9
points allowed / game
14.7
6−2
season record
3−4
4−0
home record
2−1
2−2
away record
1−3
W5
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
357
total yards / game
329
5.6
yards / play
5.2
219
passing yards / game
215
138
rushing yards / game
113
20.8
first downs / game
18.7
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

DEN · HOU · 23 days
Denver BroncosHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · HOU 1−1
Dec 3, 2023at HOUHOU 22 − 17
Sep 18, 2022at DENDEN 16 − 9

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W