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Colts at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 2 · 12:00 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final IND 20 – PIT 27
← NFL / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND7001320
PIT01701027
Team box
IND·PIT
368
total yards
225
313
passing yards
187
55
rushing yards
38
26
first downs
17
6-14
third downs
4-12
6
turnovers
1
31:55
time of possession
28:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND31/5034213
Aaron RodgersPIT25/3520310
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND14450
Jaylen WarrenPIT16312
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Michael Pittman Jr.IND91150
Calvin Austin IIIPIT5560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +17
IND +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 17 · IND 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 53%, PIT 47% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 3.4
Expected score
IND 26.9 – 23.5 PIT
Expected total
50.4
ColtsThe matchupSteelers
−113Our fair odds+113
26.9Expected points23.5
+0.52Power rating+0.03
33.8Points / game25.0
19.2Allowed / game25.0
385Total yards / game297
6.6Yards / play5.4
251Passing yards / game203
7−1Season record4−3
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · PIT chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts−11353%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+11347%————
SpreadIND by 3.4
INDIndianapolis Colts−3.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.4
Over50.4our total————
Under50.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 3.4 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 9%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%
← IND wins byPIT wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more56%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more37%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.4 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.566%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.531%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 71% completions, 257 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 68% completions, 234 yds/game, 8 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·PIT
Oct 26, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs GB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
IND·PIT
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
33.8
points / game
25.0
19.2
points allowed / game
25.0
7−1
season record
4−3
5−0
home record
2−2
2−1
away record
2−1
W4
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
385
total yards / game
297
6.6
yards / play
5.4
251
passing yards / game
203
134
rushing yards / game
94
23.2
first downs / game
17.4
0.5
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

IND · PIT · 23 days
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · PIT 1−2
Sep 29, 2024at INDIND 27 − 24
Dec 16, 2023at INDIND 30 − 13
Nov 28, 2022at INDPIT 24 − 17

IND · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L